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i don't understand how spread betting is still taxed ... ?

and then you have renaissance who get's in the whole foods deal 24h before it's announced and nobody bats an eye.

barrier options ? is it that costly to set up?

you're right i was just rambling in my mind: i was comparing long bitcoin with 1x leverage to shorting a small margin of btc with 40x and bracing through the vol till it happens.

yeah why not. imo if that situation materialized there will be plenty of clearer opportunities. no need for subtle stuff then. what's your take on why oil crashed till 28 the last time that happened?

but it was because of a self imposed ban not because of war. i agree that if something happens to the maritime routes wti/brent would decouple. that's why i mentioned the suez canal but i don't see why that would happen today.

how can brent decouple that much from WTI ? you think they will close the suez canal ?

you're right but i was thinking of bitcoin CFDs which allow you to trade the bitcoin spot with 33x-50x

short it then !

they supine'd the exchange

is there any view on which conditions could permit a stabilization of the price ?

against a loss of 151m in the same trade ? guy handles 20Bn of AuM.

they don't but the IRS is on their back.

Right now the situation looks like this either btc goes to 30k ? or btc goes to 0 x % chance bitcoin goes from 4k to 10? even 30k, that's a 6.5x return 1-x% chance bitcoin goes to < 1 or 0 that's a min 4000x return if you short it. how much do you think that x is ? let's just try 50% your...

The retail number screwed my hypothesis and shifted market sentiment. i got out before so i did not benefit from the 3 usd dip in Gold that ensued but that saved me from the effect on the NDX. not sure where market is heading atm so i'm out for the time being.

Deep ITM options vs CFDs on indices which do you think is best for 1h-7days directional bets ? in terms of leverage and costs. haven't been able to figure this out

sure but there is no way to predict the NK situation at that point. this is what we adequately call a fluke.

I haven't done any proper research but if your thesis is true. BTC can go to 10k ? which from this point on is only a 2 to 3x change or go to 0. so going down 4k times. it would not be crazy to short some quantity of it and just forget about it.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/quest-for-financial-freedom.310955/page-2#post-4499969 Made the same call on Friday. however this rally will extend beyond where we were before because the outlook for the interest rates has worsened and this has yet to be reflected on the NDX 100...