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According to the article, his net worth grew from $500,000 to $12,000,000 in 5 years.

Thanks for the tip. Going all-in long. Other positions: fetal.

How would you forecast a change in the term structure? And, how would you handle the drag of the steepening curve?

When the timeframe of your trade is that small, the effect of theta and vega are dwarfed by the effect of gamma.

Yes.

There are statistical tests designed to understand trending vs. non-trending behaviour in a time series.

Test for stationarity, you noobs.

AMZN bought WFM today. See the writing on the wall yet?

Employees? Call me when they're doing drones.

You're kidding. Amazon is going to eat up Wal-Mart.

Put up a brokerage statement and you'll have someone interested.

While I can appreciate the visceral reaction to these kinds of posts, the OP is a genuine contributor to the ThinkScript community and should be treated as such. Carry on.

Why not split your data into a training and testing set? Then use a machine learning algorithm such as neural nets to assign random weights followed by a gradient descent. Use test set and see if you like the model. Unless you're mining for relationships that you don't know exist, in which...

Or going long vol.

It appears Bloomberg and others have commented - some are declaring this a victory and that the fees will not be raised.

Collecting theta is a fine way of growing a portfolio - the challenge is how to deal with the gamma and vega risk when market volatility suddenly rises. This has been discussed ad nauseum in this forum and I encourage you to search. Short answer: Develop a volatility forecasting model...

I pre-paid 12 months at $2999 per month, so take it while you can! Also, I have these beans that I would like to sell you. Fantastic beans. Purported to grow giant beanstalks. $4999 per bean. Minimum of 10 bean purchase.

What the h-e-double-hockey-sticks is going on in this thread?

Far OTM put options are rarely overpriced in equities based on the implied statistical distribution versus the historical returns. Indices, inherently more diversified, can present a volatility risk premium alpha, but always be prepared for the short gamma/vega risk to be realized.

Statistical analysis being a proprietary model that identifies a statistical anomaly which can be exploited with a positive expected return. Inside knowledge being knowing something the market does not. Synthetic understanding of expected supply and demand being something along the lines of...