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  1. M

    Stephen Hawking is dead ...

    FFS, what in god's name does it have to do with left or right? The man achieved incredible things while almost 100% paralysed. None of us who are in full possession of our physical faculties can even begin to imagine what it's like. Have some goddamn respect.
  2. M

    Stephen Hawking is dead ...

    I wonder how you'd have done in his situation...
  3. M

    Did no one think the price of taxi medallions was a bubble, a scam

    You could argue that maybe the lenders in question were a bit too greedy and didn't diversify their loan portfolios sufficiently, instead choosing to concentrate in something which looked, frankly, bulletproof at the time. Speaking of medallions, this is a good story...
  4. M

    All that previous hype about GDP growth is nothing but worthless talk

    The Donald's gonna fix all this... Bigly Yugely Great again!
  5. M

    Is this strategy marketable?

    If you simulated this in extreme historical stress times, what sort of max DD do you get?
  6. M

    Deutsch Bank

    As of the end of 2016, DB's gross notional derivative exposure was arnd €46trn, according to this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutschebank-derivatives-exposure/deutsche-bank-says-derivatives-exposure-fears-overblown-paper-idUSKCN12903G Gross notional is a pretty stupid measure, though...
  7. M

    Why are there flash crashes in the stock market but no flash rallies?

    It's an interesting question... Firstly, during normal times, you could argue that flash crashes and flash rallies should be equally likely. However, crashes that occur during broad economic downturns are more significant as they are reflections of people needing liquidity during times of stress.
  8. M

    Deutsch Bank

    Raoul Pal is being silly... DB's issues have very little, if that, to do with USD LIBOR/OIS spreads.
  9. M

    Are Markit and Bloomberg Competitors?

    No, they're not competitors... BBG does CDS valuations etc.
  10. M

    Ackman finally exits HLF!!

    True dat...
  11. M

    Ackman finally exits HLF!!

    Correction, it's actually more like 4%...
  12. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    And now CME announces SOFR futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2018/3/01/cme_group_announcesnewsofrfutureslaunchdateandcontractspecificat.html It's a-happenin', and somewhat faster than I expected, in fact...
  13. M

    Ackman finally exits HLF!!

    The fund is down 7% YTD, if I am not mistaken... It has been a difficult run.
  14. M

    who is the best options trader in this forum ?

    Other than throwing the copy of the area newspaper at Mrs Patterson, I am very curious to hear about any other interactions you might have ended up having with the good lady. Obviously, when you were quite a bit older and had access to all those massive returns you were able to generate...
  15. M

    Florida Man Who Raised $100 Million To Short The VIX Likely Returning To Old Job At Target

    Yes, yours is a possible interpretation, for sure... Still, it's hard to know what would have been the predominant form of ownership in the absence of the specific law. It's a difficult counterfactual for me to think about, tbh. At any rate, like I said, I see your point and I think it's a...
  16. M

    Florida Man Who Raised $100 Million To Short The VIX Likely Returning To Old Job At Target

    Yes, I saw this Wikipedia article and I appreciate your point and your criticism... Still, on balance, I am not sure why people shouldn't be allowed to conduct their business affairs in any way they deem appropriate.
  17. M

    Florida Man Who Raised $100 Million To Short The VIX Likely Returning To Old Job At Target

    Yes, moreover, isn't there also a sort of a "libertarian" argument here (made by some eminent Austrian economists)? Specifically, if the various stakeholders wish to structure their business relationship with limited liability, who's to say they shouldn't be able to? Caveat emptor and all that...
  18. M

    Any studies on who normally wins - option writer versus purchaser?

    Possibly off-topic, but this here is a good analysis of the recent debacle: https://artursepp.com/2018/02/15/lessons-from-the-crash-of-short-volatility-etfs/
  19. M

    Florida Man Who Raised $100 Million To Short The VIX Likely Returning To Old Job At Target

    I do understand your point, but I just don't really know how this could be realistically structured. I mean, yes, it makes sense for partnerships/sole proprietorships, but those are, generally, small firms, with few principals. How can you have a large public company where some or of the...
  20. M

    Any studies on who normally wins - option writer versus purchaser?

    Not really... What are the drawdown characteristics of all these strategies?
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