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AMZN is worth no more than $62. ($2.50 forward x 25 % growth rate) Top line growth will come in at 25%, and there will be nothing more than margin pressure and even top line pressure going forward, as states disincentivize sales tax evasion. One of the better long term risk:reward trades...

Go to page 14. Look at the size of the standard error. http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf This isn't worth talking about.

good points... all of these estimates of the future are derived from marginal analysis based on past statements, and cost of capital is entirely dependent on the past.

Threads like this are proof there are tons of people who don't know what they are buying (or not buying, in this case). Let's repeat: The value of an asset is the present value of all of its future cash flows. That means it has nothing to do with the past. Not 'little', but nothing...

I have a mortgage I JUST refi'd (one week before, the closing was) with Amtrust and they had a few thousand of the previous mortgage' accumulated impounds that I am still waiting on to arrive. It isn't a conventional deposit, but I'm sure its covered.... At least I hope!!! Now maybe they'll...

There's no shortage of silver. Go to kitco or apmex or tulving and you can get whatever you want. Just because marginal sellers of a few ounces of coins are in lighter numbers on ebay tells very little.

I think it says only one thing: that gold is not a retail driven bubble. Interpret that line as you wish. When plumbers know the spot price of gold, buy the dollar. Until then, we're not done. I bet if you asked most on the street what crude cost per barrel, you'd get better answers (since it...

APT of course has a lot more flexibility. You can make APT replicate CAPM (just by using only a beta factor), so I say APT > CAPM. Here is a good intro to it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0EgQ97whWg

Exactly. http://www.dtcc.com/products/derivserv/data_table_i.php?id=table6_current In the latest week of top 1000 entities, 6B for Govt of Dubai gross, 600m net. Once again, everyone getting carried away.

You are long the Japan disaster bonus? :) Why the change in sentiment ? :) I'm with ya, but have a feeling this may take a few years.

What you forget is almost every economic trend/force has a tendency to be self-reinforcing in an exponential sort of fashion (ie deflation sends a signal to producers to cut back, which reduces size of the economy and labor force, which reduces demand, which sends continued signal to producers...

I think it's more uncomfortable, for sake of appearing a fool, to presume everything will work. Imagine... AMZN at $260/share, 2% inflation rate, unemployment reversing at 10.5% and trending for the next few years towards 6%, government tax revenues increasing, interest rates staying low as...

Relative to where they might have been had the market not been up 60%, one might able to easily say 'home sales and car sales are going wild.'

On #2, i think you are wrong as the cost of carry is priced into both contracts. The net profit on the deal is negative, since you have to pay commissions and transaction costs.

All of these articles, esp the Hayman piece whets my appetite for a 'short JGB etf'.. Anyone know of any trading in the US? Better than the 10 year JGB future I'd love to short a 30 year JGB. I'm sure a long maturity ETF could take care of this with ease. I can trade SGX, but honestly i'd...

An ETF that sells straddles and strangles, right?

$500, $5000.... doesn't matter. it is too little infer anything meaningful other than the fact you understand the basic mechanics of placing trades. I wouldn't even bother mentioning it other than to make the point you have some basic experience placing trades and a basic understanding of options.

I'm amazed at your run... totally blown away. Now if you were me, you'd take all of the money off the table and put it into high yielding rental properties, and take the relatively passive income and start a new nestegg with it. Within 2 months, you'll have 10 grand to repeat this whole...

All I know is that I've owned my main home from Dec04-Present and bought a rental property on Sep09. Where's my tax credit? Unless they reduce it to 3-4 years minimum and make it retroactive, murphy's law stays invoked. ;(

Here's the direct link for the letter. http://www.scribd.com/doc/21753600/Tudor-Third-Quarter-Letter Lot of good info on gold market fundamentals in there.