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Guys that charge money for their services would never buy only a few stocks for 99% of their clients because of the potential risk that wouldn't be tolerated by those said clients...so of course they couldn't possibly do as good. They SHOULDN'T do as good, because that would mean they are taking...

Like I said about RIMM, it's becoming very bloated. I'll be looking to short it on the next spike. That volatility proves that investors are scared to death to hold RIMM through any market decline.

RIMM is almost done. A PE of over 80? A Beta of 1.52? Yeah, this growth pig is on the verge of being BBQ'd. :D

I told you when to short it here... http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1629001#post1629001 :p It was only about 7 points off the high. Actually, I wish that I had pulled the trigger myself.

Let me give you an analogy that is actually quite similar to the case of owning equity. Imagine somebody you know comes to you telling you that they are going to start a business, but they need capital to start it. They tell you that the business has the potential to make 15% a year and you...

You need to understand something. Stock prices are forward looking. The only reason GOOG and others held up is because the companies are financially strong and have good earnings. There are 2 aspects to price, Systematic risk and Unsystematic risk. The unsystematic risk are the factors that...

Ok, a few more statistics. Also, a bit more information. It's a weekly system, so the number of trades are reasonable. The number of trades is 1511 for the period 2000-2007. The P/L includes IB type commission structures, so that is already incorporated into the profits reported.

And this is the performance in the bear market of 2001-2003. Any comments would be greatly appreciated. This is strictly a long system. There are no shorts in the bear market.

Ok, I'm in the process of designing a completely automated system. My goal now is to have a conservative system that handily beats the historic performance of the market, while at the same time providing a smooth equity return in all markets. This is my first take. It's a VERY conservative...

Just download the historic values into excel for the securities you want to calculate correlation. Then use the "Correlation Coefficient" formula from the statistics to calculate the relationship. A value of 1 means perfect positive correlation, 0 means no correlation and -1 means perfect...

There's the top everybody :eek: I don't believe it'll be a violent bear, but I think we are about to reverse again. We might have one more spike up to test highs, but I think downside is the direction we'll probably be going.

I really wish I had kept CMG. I originally bought it at 45 and sold it at 85 to see it skyrocket to 125.:(

All right..one last post. If I know that the host knew where the coin was, the probability at that exact point that the coin is under the cup in that game is 99%. I have a 100% probability of making it to the point of being able to even make this choice in this game. The probability that the...

Agreed!!

The crux of the problem is related to possibilities of what the host will do. If you know that the host will not turn over the winning cup, then you would switch and this is why: If the host doesn't know where the coin is, there is a 1% chance that it is under any of the cups. If the host...

If there is no friction, the moving conveyor belt will have no effect on the plane, so as the belt moves the plane stays right where it was to begin with. Because with friction, the belt starting to move has to have enough energy to move the plane as well. Without the static force of friction...

I'll take a stab. Perhaps I'm thinking of this from the wrong perspective, but here's my take. Black comes up 60% of the time. Figuring the 99% confidence interval on 1000 games, the range is from roughly 55%-65% that black will come up in those 1000 spins. This also means that red has a...

Yeah...I knew I was going to eat those words about 5 minutes after I posted them. :p But yes, you're correct. If you don't know what the host knows, then the possibilities of the host opening a door with a car throws a wrench into the game.

Here's the problem laid out for those having difficulty in understanding it: Game 1: You choose Door 1: Door 1 Door 2 Door3 Goat Goat Car 1/3 prob 1/3 prob 1/3 prob Host turns over Door 2 leaving these doors Door 1 Door3 Goat car 1/3...

Yes, that is correct for the most part. It may also just be that at the *current* time they don't see great opportunities. Or that the company does'nt want to take any risks with projects, so they "appease" stockholders who are screaming for return for their investment. The other poster...