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STD of the log of the price. You can fairly reliably model a stock most of the time with this, if you're careful about it. However, human intelligence has to be applied when extremes start to come in, or you wind up losing lots of money. I don't believe there is such a thing as a perfect model...

It's actually not that difficult to figure out when the markets go into "panic" mode. If I can do it, I'm sure these quants can. I went flat from the end of July until the start of Sept, pretty much, based on my own look at standard deviations. To oversimplify, a part of my system depends on...

Trichet should be cutting rates, but he's too preoccupied with showing that his is bigger than Bernanke's. His exchange rate, that is.

I'm sure they were saying the same thing in August 1971, and in March 1968, about no one wanting dollars. Yet here we are 30 some odd years later, and the dollar is still the reserve currency. It will probably still be so 30 years from now. Trade the currency and credit crises for the profit...

Whether the regime over there can survive the first severe recession they get is going to be the question. I give them less than a 50% chance of surviving such an event, myself. In the shorter run, say the next 20 or so years, China is it. But past that, India will be where the action is...

Long run up from the lows, and today smelled like the bears finally giving up. It will probably be reported as the Street realizing the Fed has no reason to cut at the next meeting, and therefore pulling back. Also, earnings are coming out starting next week, and we've been buying on the rumor...

In which case, Bernanke was correct, and didn't panic. Case closed.

So, which is it? Is it that this jobs report shows Bernanke is wrong? Or is it that daddyeaux's chart shows he's right? It can't be both. Not that you guys have the intellectual horsepower to figure that out.

The Rus2k gave the buy at the close on Thursday. Anyway, time to sell. Next week should be net down.

Odds favor a breakout to the upside tomorrow. Only one that might not go up, or not as much as the rest of the market, is tech, which is looking a bit stretched.

Very true. I never minded automating out of existence all those jobs, because for the most part the people either found other jobs in the company or were given good packages when they were let go, which of course gave them a decent amount of time to find something else, or just retire if they...

The US trade deficit is improving rapidly. The fiscal deficit has been improving for years, and given continued growth, will continue to do so. Trichet won't cut, not until and unless he is absolutely forced against a wall. Reason why is why you guys have to study your history. DeGaulle wanted...

::Bows in the general direction of Realist.:: Well done.

On one hand, crazy overbought. On the other, HUI just made another 52 week high. Overall, I'd say it's too soon to sell.

If you're talking about jobs replaced by automation, you're right. I've terminated tons of people's jobs by automating their functions. If you're talking about outsourcing however, no. Tech jobs can easily be replaced by outsourcing to foreign countries. It is, however, true that automation...

No friggin' clue. My default state, as it were. But, if the bullishness continues into Friday, no matter what the number is, we'll drop on it.

Well, I've been looking for a dip for more than a week now. Nothing doing. Longer term, though, my position trading model is looking for major breakouts just about everywhere, in everything. The skepticism on this site just confirms it. So, short term I'd like to see a pullback, but being a...

Gold & oil ripped in the Seventies. The job market wasn't nearly as bad as remembered, either. In the allegedly awful Carter debacle, 10 million net new jobs came on stream during his term. That era was the minicomputer era, when the Route 28 corridor around Boston had all kinds of companies...

I can understand the opposition, but this is like trying to stop the tide with a sand castle. There's hundreds of millions in both India & China now joining the global economy. If they can't come here, the jobs will be outsourced there. And, btw, after them comes Indonesia, with still more...

How about a 251 day base, since that's the number of trading days in a year, more or less? (365-104 (for weekends) - 10 (for holidays))