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The forecast is holding up well, I'm somewhat pleased. Here is another little something that I've derived from my forecast math, it's significant days where there are strong odds of a higher close or lower close than the previous day. (Close to Close) Real, recent examples of my past...

Now what would be really telling is if I capitulated right here, and said, "Gee, golly, I was so wrong. I'm going to get long," and we saw THE top in sugar form this week. That would mean that I'm a contrary indicator right? Well, I'll say it, "I was wrong...in my timing." I never once...

Not sure, but I guess we'll find out, won't we?

Seasonal weakness for coffee is greatest in the June/July timeframe, with choppy, up/down/sideways action from Aug-Oct, and a year end rally starting in Nov. The period starting aroung August 16, and going into Sept 1 timeframe is one of the most reliable two-week windows for a rally in KC...

Can't crush consumer confidence, it's living on a wing-and-a-prayer right now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKMd6KBEnngE Around paragraphs 19-20.

I guess he's not as big of a prick as I origionally thought. :D

These are generalized odds, obviously. If you want to compile the exact stats on % chances for up days, down days and flat days for all stocks and indices since day T1 and report back to us, be my guest. That being said, there are only 3 possibilities for closing prices on any given day...

Market will only close in one of 3 ways: up, down or flat. You can only guess on each day that the market will be one of these three options. Probablility that on one day you will guess the right market close= 1/3=.333. Take that to the power of 10, .333^10 and you get .0000169. These are...

Or....... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=138462&perpage=6&pagenumber=22 I generated this forecast at data point number 30(roughly) on X-axis. I've been updating the underlying price every week/two weeks since then. It's not exactly right for 10 out of 10 days...

No, not trading Augs, just using that contract in the side-by-side comparison with the forecast. I'm in the Octs. I don't know where I'd put a load of cattle, as I live in downtown Dallas. The thought of it makes me laugh. And yes, the beach was great. I was in SanDestin, FL. It beats...

Just returned from vacation a few days ago. It's so hard to get going again when you've been frolicking on the beach for the past week. Anyway, here's the updated forecast. It's the same as the last, but with the updated LCQ09 prices through today's (08/18/2009) close. It's all working...

It is über abundant as well.

Fundamental, or technical-based projection?

I will say that although there is no single indicator that can tell you this with 100% certainty, you can watch for stochastic, ROC, RSI, volume and/or MACD divergences as price moves closer to an important support or resistance level. It can be quiet reliable, but not perfect. Don't let...

We are slaves to the Chinese.

Excerpt from Paul Tudor Jones interview, 2000: (Short Phrase Associations) Q: Technical analysis Paul Tudor Jones: Made well over half the money that I've made in my lifetime. Q: Fundamental Analysis Paul Tudor Jones: Made the rest.

WTF? 3 demerits.

If you took an economic climate ripe with inflationary fruits, and merged it with an economic climate that was equally as deflationary (due to different circumstances), what would you get? Inflation= 5 Deflation= -5 5+(-5)=0 Kick that scenario, b/c it's happening right now. Credit...

Looks like a $US ETF