Search results

You do realize how naive you sound? Here's simple math that may help you get back to your senses. Suppose you add to position everytime market goes X points against you. n - how many times you've already added (that is, nX is how many points you're negative). when n = 1, your risk is X...

Sorry, I messed up the direction. I meant long trades.

Let's say you trade against trend as you've already mentioned and start shorting at 2500, and add to the position every 10 points the market gets against you. You add equal sizes every time. Short at 2500, short at 2490, short at 2480, etc. till bottom of 1750. That makes and average price of...

Well this looks like just another martingale strategy that averages losing positions. Also known as "grid trading" in some less known forums, discussed to death. Personally, I don't see value in this approach. If you think of it, it's a reverse of trend-following. Trend-following loses most of...

Actually the whole "System Development" thread by Alan Crary is a detailed tutorial about this approach.

Your posts are very interesting, but also very puzzling. I have enough expertise to program and automate anything, so that's just trivial for me. The interesting part is what's your idea. I can think of only three ideas of how to achieve 99% consistency in profitability: 1) Through finding...

Hi, First of all, what do you mean by "random distribution of prices"? Do you mean distribution of price changes at regular time intervals? If it's so, then it is impossible to create a profitable method on assumption that time series is random and independent. On top of that, market time...

You are just guessing and your guess is oversimplified and largely biased by your work on "interconnected" strategies. The only one who can answer this question is acrary himself.

What is a treed approach?

Forget about it. I found staring at the wall and thinking is much more productive and useful than reading these useless forums. Some say this forum is for entertainment. Well then, there are much better ways to get entertainment than to read this crap.

Damn

What pair are you talking about? If its EUR/USD or GBP/USD then 8 pips is just noise.

I agree, that is true. Although the problem lies elsewhere. For a typical profession there already exists prepared infrastructure for you to get started. You know where you have to go and what you need to do to get there. In trading there is no such thing. Add to that enormous amount of...

That is exactly what I was referring to as "invention". It's way different than learning a new profession and then making a living from it.

I find comparing trading to any other industry completely false. You take any other profession, be it doctor, lawyer, programmer, plumber, taxi driver, etc. there are no secrets. If you work in a company, your colleagues will help you with questions and obstacles, they will disclose best...

Thanks for the response. I have no problem using Excel, so it's not an issue for me. I'm also a programmer and am able to code much more sophisticated stuff than it is possible to do with Excel (I've done at least 8 projects recently). I have some background in mathematics and statistics, but...

Welcome back, Steve Just a quick question. Are you going to start a thread about data analysis? I've been playing around with a few ideas recently. I also ordered Sherry's book, but since I'm living in a distant corner of the world, it will take about a month for it to travel here. It's...

Trading with no edge is similar to placing random trades. That is true if you define edge as trading performance that is significantly better than random trading.

If you have an edge, you can automate/trade it mechanically and metal state won't matter. Useless garbage/flame war threads outweigh method threads 500 to 1. There's really almost nothing of substance on ET.

Start with basic probability and statistics. Read acrary's thread about system development. Learn about "edge test" and understand what it means. Get a habit to test every idea against random using various statistical techniques. Forget about fibonacci sequences, golden means, trendlines...