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I am one of those. +, US situation is similar to Japan in 90's. Which to go long? I was thinking of building a position in TRY, but some dumb people in here played in my head. If I did over the last 4 weeks, I would have made a bundle (not only capital appreciation, but also the juicy...

warren is smart, as for the rest they either never traded or got lucky. Warren's money is NOT from trading/investing (but he is a great investor). As for Soros he did not trade anything. He hired traders, and by process of luck/elimination and high leverage (with OPM) he made it big. That is it!

Agree with you. I was talking about the late calls (3 or 4 of them). I think the market will be more reasonable in the future (probably range bound). As of Monday close, It took 25% of IWM from the high ( i trade IWM). Assuming a 2 yrs bear market correcting 50% from top, this means we were...

I agree with you HG. My reading of it is that traders now mainly trade indices (not the stocks). When there is an annoucement like today's all try to get long, stop their shorts, and all of that. It runs fast. Probably a program trade will push indices back in line with stocks, and as you said...

I also think it is a negative sum game. However on in bull leg, it is a positive game for longs, and in a bear leg it is a positive sum game for shorts. That is why it is so important to trade with the trend.

You are absolutely correct HoldyGrail. It is one of the reasons people in forex trading for instance lose their capital. They do not even know that house leverage is a source of their death. I read a short article here that I think explain well this point in the case of forex...

IBD are clueless. They are good in a bullish market. Over the last 4 to 6 months, they got all their rally calls wrong, and they existed it late. My predictions has been correct, but I got defensive because their market calls as I know they have a large following (otherwise I would have made...

I like your dedication to facts HolyGrail. But strike 2 (and 3 see below) is not correct (you did not read my thread yesterday?). As for strike 3, I think I have a different view because I understood you saying that the big move today is really not a true one because of your index. So...

contrarian here does not mean trading opposite to the crowd. It means trading opposite of your conclusions on whether you should go long, short, or do nothing. So work very hard doing an excellent analysis, and at the end do the exact opposite of your conclusion. It should work very well...

It is ok that you are mad at me. Here is some advice I have for you. Complete your analysis. Reach your conclusions. Then here is a way that will make money with high probability (it does not apply to you only, but to the majority including myself): Do the exact opposite of your conclusions.:D

Let us get to the chase HolyGrail. How much are you losing so far? Do not try to justify things. Check your account between 3:40PM yesterday and close of today, and you will now if the market is strong or weak. BTW, the market was flushing her signs yesterday, but the majority (as usual) did...

Long DITM put and DITM call can not lose capital if cost is difference between strikes.

Would you mind saying which dealers you use to trade options on currencies? I will understand if you cannot share the info.

I recognized your name from yesterday's thread in the trading forum. What happened to the falling knives of yesterday? Or is it that some people fell on rising swords they could not see?:D Do you trade options, and did you ever make a trade that would fit under this thread? Also I want to...

Give the guy a break for one day. He was right yesterday as the market is a big green today. But I do not agree with his bull leg. We are in a bear market for two years unless the market makes an all time high by then. So, I go short after a major rally. I also go long but when market is...

No no, sell to the guys who said short yesterday. Then buy back from them on Tomorrow or Thurday when the market pulls back.

Where is all the big reasoning and the big mouths of yesterday championing going short no matter what? Saying words such as falling knives, don't second guess the trend, and what have you? I want you explanations today of what you were writing yesterday.

What a difference a day makes! Check this thread in which people could not believe that shorting does not make sense. I told them watch for the up move by day end, and worse gap up the next day. Both happened! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=120516&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

It was going up no matter what. Ben is really dumb.

afraid of gaps (on the way up). I do not trust opens the next morning when market is oversold or overbought. Please my analysis tell me that bottom is near. No juice left or if any juice left it is not worth the squeese. Plus I made money yesterday (even if it was against yesterday's trend)...