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GM is in trouble because of: a) unregulated health care industry which is killing every company -- don't blame the messenger indeed. b) incredibly poor management which refused to develop more fuel efficient, lower maintenace cars as a way leading the competition instead of following it...

So, You don't like ER2 because it is too crowded, you find a new vehicle to trade that you like that is less crowded, and then you go and advertise? :p

Just a lot of volume is all I see. Certainly broke the morning downtrend's back. In the maybe category, perhaps a few days of pounding 1220 and not getting anywhere was enough...

Thanks, Seems like you get no juice until 116 and change though -- unless you are able to leg in for a credit. Looks like oil is moving your way for the moment though. :)

I actually have no firm opinion whatsoever -- I trade index futuers and have been fooling with options for several years but don't trade them regularly or systematically. I was just trying to understand the risk and rewards of what you are doing as well as the implied bias -- if any.

I'd like to learn from your journal and the fist step would be the rationale/strategy I hope. Here's what I see. You are going long an 15% OTM 6 week call and looking to partially hedge the debit with a credit if it moves in your direction. Since it is a ratio trade you must be particularly...

At current prices -- not target prices of course --, you are spending $2.45 for a 3:1 spread. What's got you so bullish on oil at this point into the end of the year?

Just depends on how much work you want to put in vs how much work you are willing to pay to have done in advance. They will sell you the source code so it's not like you lose control. My guess is that unless you have done this kind of work before there is no way you could cost effectively...

QuantDeveloper, But you are going to have to write some code to get it where you want it.

Fed raises interest rates, growth slows, people sell dollar assets -- not to mention the increased cost of financing the deficit slows public sector spending as well -- and the exchange rate declines again. There is another side to the equation you propose.

I check every day and didn't see anything through Friday...

Um...as far as I know everyone pays for oil in US$'s -- except for Iraq post 2000 and they got invaded. Coincidentally, their oil is now sold in US$'s again. The other exception is Venezuela and barter transactions. Funny, it seems to me that we supported a coup attempt there a few years back...

Sorry, I think I was unclear. 75% of the world's oil production [less US production of course] could be converted to non-dollar transactions.

We're shifting topic here a bit but I think it is a fine line as to who owns who at some point... Having said that, the Saudi's account for what 25% of world oil production??? There's a lot of petro-cash that could move away from the dollar.

Babak, I think you touch on the right point but don't take it in. Most of the money that the oil cartel has taken in is simply invested in US stock, treasuries, and agency debt and not spent. The cartel has an enormous surplus that just keeps growing. The Saudi's alone have a $ Trillion...

ROFLOL

Interesting read. Worth noting that Japan hasn't fallen apart despite persistent prices at $60+. I'll have to watch their economic reports a bit more closely. I have noticed that the long bond can't seem to find it's feet. Not sure if that is related to the new issuance coming in Feb or what...

I think it's a great idea as it shows the emotional ups and downs of trading, the risk/reward scenario, and the decision making process for entering and leaving the "business." You could also provide a lot of general info on how index trading works, tools, leverage, other characters, etc...

More like monopolists. They just don't want the liquidity drain most likely...

Well managed considering we went parabolic this last week or so. Any time I can get out flat when I am leaning the wrong way is a victory to me.