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    How many years away are we from a no BS backtesting program?

    Uh, no it isn't. High, sustained expectancy is the essential key. Money management just changes the ordering that money comes in----or leaves----and that can make things somewhat more or less pleasant. Unless changing your size changes the expectancy, in which case it is part of your...
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    The Israeli Moles Who Controlled U.S. Defense Computers on 9/11

    This is the time-honored pattern of anti-Jewish prejudice: 1) Find something current, and really bad about the world. 2) Blame Jews for it. Worked in the past: Jews---horrible robber baron capitalists---and Bolsheviks, too!
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    On PPT and GM

    <i>Do you see any fiscal negatives in the U.S. that ARE NOT "shared" by Japan, the U.K., Western Europe and Australia?</i> Yes: Japan and Australia are better off. Japan and Japanese are more willing to make collective decisions for the good of the country even if it doesn't let the top...
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    Significant Reduction in Petroleum / Gasoline Prices, HOW?

    Why are you taking natural gas----as valued in the continental United States at one point, Erath, Louisiana (Henry Hub) as having anything to do with the global price of oil? US continental natural gas is not really globally, freely supplied, being limited basically to Gulf of Mexico...
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    Significant Reduction in Petroleum / Gasoline Prices, HOW?

    What do you want to make a bet: when GM releases it's plug-in hybrid---it's a ginormous chrome-encrusted fat-tired SUV? With fuel efficiency less than a gasoline-only Camry.
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    Newbie question: whats the best way to hold a long term hedge in eur

    With a true ETF there ought to be no liquidity problem in liquidity as the underlying asset (in this case currencies) can be bought and sold by arbitrageurs very easily. The only real issue is if you want to trade in hours when normal exchanges are closed, but of course spot FX is still...
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    The Spring is Silent on DDT

    This is another right wing screed. Yes, DDT does harm birds by making their eggs unable to survive when nesting. In some places with horrible malarial disease the trade-offs may be worthwhile---for a little while until mosquitos become resistant to DDT.
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    Thinking about moving to San Diego

    There is no possible way a good health plan is $171 for a couple. Check out the terms---it is probably a scam. $600-1000 is more like it. (I live in San Diego). Oh yeah, California is sooo overcrowded and expensive we don't want you. Please stay away. Away away away. Don't...
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    Thinking about moving to San Diego

    There is no possible way a good health plan is $171 for a couple. Check out the terms---it is probably a scam. $600-1000 is more like it. (I live in San Diego).
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    Collusion Between Al-Journalism and Government Traitors

    Not exactly. It is a war of Englightenment values, which originated in the West but are universally applicable, versus orthodox political Islamic values.
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    An Inconvenient Truth: Gore is wrong

    The idea that only Democrats were responsible for the demise of nuclear power is not true. The other fact was free-market capitalism. For many years (until 2 or 3 years ago) natural gas was very cheap and gas powered plants much cheaper to operate, and get permitted. Then, with the...
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    An Inconvenient Truth: Gore is wrong

    Sorry I didn't read further on Ball's talk. I am now pretty negative on him. Ball's contention that "the 'hockey stick' graph is wrong" is itself wrong. www.realclimate.org has details, and the National Academy of Sciences (by far the most prestigious and official organ of US science &...
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    An Inconvenient Truth: Gore is wrong

    Regarding the interview by Ball. The cooling I was referring to is more the large scale ice ages which are on longer term cycles given by orbital dynamics. The problem I have with many of the "cycleologists" is that to some significant degree it is post-hoc "numerology", i.e. seeing a...
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    An Inconvenient Truth: Gore is wrong

    "The earth's temperature rises and falls normally. That is what the debate is about." That is true: and it's exactly what the climate scientists have been entangling for decades. The conclusion is that the human-induced component is now major, qualitatively and quantitatively and no other...
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    An Inconvenient Truth: Gore is wrong

    WTF? That is Star Trek mumbo jumbo. A decrease in the magnetic field will result in more radiation and more cancer.
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    An Inconvenient Truth: Gore is wrong

    I am an environmentalist and professional scientist, and I support rapid changeover to non-fossil sources, such as wind and nuclear, along with re-electricfication of global transportation. Hydroelectric has been tapped out as the best places for dams have been mapped out, and climate change...
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    An Inconvenient Truth: Gore is wrong

    The movie is almost completely correct, at least for a general audience. I am a scientist (not in climate), and happen to have first-hand scientific contacts at the highest levels in major research institutes and universities in oceanography and climate. The issue is not any specific datum...
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    If there is a quantitative measure for Edge, what is it?

    I like Acrary's methods. In modern statistics, Monte Carlo randomization types of tests are quite important and powerful. In my opinion, these types of things which can get at the real problem at hand, as opposed to a perfect analytic solution for a problem which isn't really the right...
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    Significant Reduction in Petroleum / Gasoline Prices, HOW?

    The reason that crude inventories are high is simple. When you have a contango market (expect prices in the future to be higher later in general more than now) then physical oil dealers find it more profitable to run "at the top of the tanks" for the reason you can now understand. You can...
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    Bernanke will not raise rates next meeting

    Professor Bernanke would love to get another crack at flunking a upper-class fratboy lush. PS: I think I had him for Econ 101 many years ago. It was the worst class I had in my entire time at the university; he taught like the students were brain dead highschoolers.
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