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Smallfil, I am not trolling here. Let's break this down together. His first statement is "I wan't to turn this 2k into 4k by next year". He basically states in multiple posts he has 0 edge and 0 way of extracting alpha. He then goes on to turn 2k into 150k in 9 months.....I am not saying turning...

I think I have a sticker lying around here somewhere for you.....when was the last time you saw a supply/demand imbalance, in what product and why?

Why are you being sarcastic? Please enlighten me with the last supply/demand imbalance you have found and the reason for it?

First take care of the things that give you negative edge. How is your programming, math/stats knowledge? Do you have a good broker? Then you need to figure out where can make money from supply/demand imbalances.

Ladies, this thread is a hoax. I am 100% unbiased as I do not care for directional trading. I can not get passed the 4th page without cringing. What everyone is falling victim to is Option investor is trading options not stock. Yes he is guessing direction right(for the most part) but at what...

If you ever see another one, please post it! Plus I am about to PM you about 231 Flys. Grab a glass of wine

LOL when was this! Theres no way anytime recent!! You must of bet the farm on that trade

LOL. This was definitely not the original question. I thought you were an unreal futures trader? What kind of question is this? I sell options all the time. I also buy a lot of options. Do you mean is there someone making 20% a year short gamma- without over leveraging? Then yes I could name 4...

A 231 p fly, is not the same as a 121 p fly with a "vertical stunk". Try building it on your platform and you will see it is not the same. Bsm does not price skew correctly, your Greeks are all perpetually confused. A stochastic/ local vol model might help you with your delta hedges.

Teach me your ways! :)

I can not reply on behalf of Des, But 231 P flys on global indexes when skew is steep have been amazing for me. It allows you to trade higher moments and be bi-modal to certain greeks (long theta and gamma). When you trade OTM 231 P flies you need a better model than BS to figure out your hedge...

Well from reading a few of your posts it looks like you trade linear products. That is why you see no use of this paper. :)

Masters or PHD? What are you getting your degree in?

There is only different classes of poverty my friend. When I was 14 I remeber I would think to myself how can I earn just an extra $100 a month. Have less wants and you will wonder where all this extra money is coming from

$500 a trade. Wins are $1000(2x loss). Loss are $500. Win ration is 60/40. .60*1000 - .4*500 = $400 per trade on a 1 lot. Wow this is incredible. Please tell me this strategy is scaleable. Send me a PM so I can retire :D.

See how comfortable you feel trading the option. "limited loss potential" etc..This is why there is a risk premium in owning convexity. Higher return on capital FORSURE!! BUT that's when you are right. I can't recall the last time I lost 100% of my capital investing in a stock ( - 100% ROC when...

I mean you should be expecting a big loss, it's in the nature of the trade. Lot of little gains and a big loss. But if it has a positive expected value it's a good strategy. You like the opposite profile. A lot of small losers and an occasional big winner. But what if the implied vol is already...

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/mjohannes/PDFpapers/Earnings_2006.pdf This is out dated but the models are still useful. It also gives you some interesting ideas to include into your own model. Reading it for the second time if any one cares to talk about it i'll be here :)

I fall under the category that do not understand the deeper meaning. Care to explain?

Well you never really find absolute cheap vol(which is why directional trading is so hard with options) BUT you always find relatively cheap vol. An example would be buying RUT gamma selling SPX. If someone is good with direction they will almost always be more profitable in the long run trading...