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Think of it, you'd have to kill someone to get a job in this economy. Then to motivate you to work hard at your job, your sentence is waived. Talk about moral hazard....

Just want to get consensus here. 50bp on the 20 yr either way calculates to about 6% at these leaves.

I bought a 129 ZB 5 day put this morning... But for different reasons... Wondering how far it goes. Each 50bp is about 6 points on the ZB around this part of the curve. My gut says treasuries go up just because Murphy's Law likes to give me the finger on a regular basis.

That said, that GDP trails and we already knew 2nd Q was lousy (before the GDP). 3rd and 4Q are what's on the market's mind. Leading indicators > lagging.

One idea I had off the top of my head might be to do this exercise: Instead of making a typical covar matrix based on component price changes, instead prepare the data going into that matrix as if each component had underlying options. So in the married put example, the return of the put is...

Tanked? Have you looked at the job #s in granular detail? The seasonal unadjusted is up something like +700k (which is what the birth/death adjustment comes up with). Furthermore, I don't think pulling back from additional QE had much of anything to do with the recent slowdown. The...

Hey guys, Anyone have a price series (going back maybe at least 5-10 years hopefully) on rare earths or a composite of them? Looking for spot prices in the highest resolution possible attainable... This is just for a project I'm doing. Not looking to pay for the data (i found metal-pages...

I should have been paid $30 (+$4 in commissions) just to have wasted my time with this thread.

bearice: loving your posts tonight. 1st: married women (who for a large part according to you work for hobby) shouldn't work because they take jobs away from men and single women. 2nd: tea and coffee, useless. Let me chip in: 3rd: all fossil fuel 'fueled' economic activity should...

Right now the risk free trade looks to be to buy silver, sell gold...

I bet you would.. Wheelbarrows and all...

C real gdp is on horizontal axis (is same as Q). P is on vertical axis. Imagine a nearly vertical supply curve. Move the demand curve rightward. New eq point is much higher price level movement than Q change. In a purely vertical supply curve, no new production results, just inflation...

In fact, through the spreads, he wasn't long or short gold, but was long or short his perceived mispricing of carry/lease/interest rates between the months.

Between China and ECB indiscriminately buying crap debt financed by an expanded balance sheet, no doubt we have a good reason why gold and silver should continue to undermine fiat. (Or more precisely, why central banks continue to undermine fiat and force value into gold and silver.) That...

Just broadcasting something interesting here... Someone bought 8000 calls (2000 atm 17.50 Mar, 6000 at 20 Jun) this morning, at the bid. Volatility is low and the stock barely moved, with the market maker buying probably around ~150k shares to hedge the transaction. Smells like a good...

Judging by these responses, I think long bonds might actually -be- the right move. That said, your portfolio allocation is pretty undiversified and risky. You are taking quite a bit duration, so there's a bit of risk there. If you want risk free, buy t-bills. If you want return, you have...

I'll be impressed when 'retail' is able to buy this on leverage without any margin call risk. (That's the whole point)

Generally, the point of spousal benefits is for society to help subsidize the costs involved in raising a family. One way to approach this is to hold back spousal benefits until dependent children are in the picture. Obviously we need to better grasp what the point of spousal benefits are...

Because the backwardation in index futures comes from dividends combined with near zero interest rates, and nothing else. This isn't cotton. whoever posted that has 'priced himself to irrelevence.'

Sorry but a delisting does not mean the shares are worthless. It just goes to another exchange. ie SAYCY.PK So I'd be careful about exercising those puts. Company value is still very much unknown. I'm not confident that they didn't contest the delisting, but on the other hand the CFO...