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i called it within 2 weeks. it happened in two days. now here's the question. $1.00 up in one day --- is this thing overshooting a bit? this is an -amazing- rally... looks like the long term shorts are getting out... ironically, it looks to be a good (short term) short opportunity.

:) everyone here needs to be right. what a pissing match.

interesting. have you noticed lately whenever the equity indexes do well, the US dollar shrinks? Rallies right now are completely driven by optimism of stop to fed rate increases. But that very stop is a dollar weakening force. The fed can't control inflation pressure from energy prices...

No need to be so dramatic. If you're right about this, you'll have a hard time likely getting a job as a corporate slave, though. :) With this attitude, be careful. Its harder to do well if you expect to fail. This may belong in the psychology area. :) Why don't you just daytrade it with...

by the way, roubini's interview is on front page of bloomberg.com. This guy is as sharp as a tack. He's on point - no hesitation with every question. His comparisons to the 2000 recession are insightful.

Be careful with those LEAP puts. ie SPX DEC 06 versus DEC 07. Remember you are fighting time and VERY LOW delta. .40 delta ATM compared to .30 delta ATM when comparing 3 month puts to 15 month puts. And 30 points in the money, its even more pronounced a difference: .50 delta compared to...

I've read that thread already, and while I agree broken price discovery mechanism issues and hedge funds' affect on the markets are substantial, nothing changes the level of vulnerability to oil shocks we're at right now. The speculation premium only exists because the fundamental other issues...

I agree. no matter what, money management is most important. Only commit what you can afford to lose. You'll likely be wrong on your timing - thats murphy's law. And if you're buying OTM puts, turn it into a bear debit spread (selling further OTM puts) to reduce your financing costs. Look...

I agree with your long term view - oil and gold will be crap - but its a little early to turn that into a trading strategy, maybe 7-10 years early. An oil spike won't rebound to original price levels unless either demand destruction occurs or the catalyst causing that spike proves benign...

I'm the first to believe in peak oil, but lets be objective - these curves from your second link are BS. the OECD one made me laugh. The trend line is up, but that conveniently drawn curve was hilarious. Also political and price influences are not factored in to these moving averages. We...

Now is too early to move. We will rally in August for a while -- Friday's GDP response is proof that this market only cares about one thing - a stop to rising interest rates, at the expense of anything. And that, Mr. Bernanke will deliver, or at least signal an end to. Wildcard here is oil...

Good link. thanks.

I agree - nuclear will win this fight - but it'll take 5-10 years. Nuclear power plants are slow to build. In between now and then, I wouldn't doubt $100-$200 oil and its horrible economic effects. 50% of new cars will be hybrid gas/ethanol within 3 years of $125+ oil, out of necessity.

peak oil is bad science? ha... at least with a statement like that, substantiate your argument. Look at every balance sheet on every oil company, independent small or major, and production is declining year after year. Believe me, small producers have even more incentive to drill for...

lets debate this another way - regardless of supply issues, what is the price per barrel where demand destruction will occur enough to limit price escalation? obviously not $75.

If you are in the 100 share block size, this is true. But typical mini contracts are comparable to trading 300-1000 share block sizes. The ES is comparable to trading 1000 shares of something in the 50-60 share price, but this risk is offset by its lower volatility than say, APPL or SLB...

I've been doing this as of late with success on my trades. Its a very psychologically satisfying strategy. You get to profit take and let runs truly run at the same time. You could even call it a form of retroactive scalping. I've been trading natural gas like this the last few days...

qg's (nymex mini for gas) multiplier is $2500 per $1 movement, by the way. Some more diversified picks are DVN and APA. They are heavy nat gas stocks with great earnings numbers.

let me chime in. I am new to trading, a few months as well, and am discovering all of the important concepts such as: 1) having a set of tools, ie trading strategies to work with to exploit different situations. 2) working hard to have a strong understanding of the underlying economies...

33 you know, e-trade is ridiculous (commisions, order execution interface, etc), but their power etrade platform via java is about ten times faster than TWS... The real time charting flies, especially when you have more than one underlying on one chart. I would love that kind of speed...