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ok, so from what i take your saying is that OTM credit trades arent good because the risk rewars isnt worth it. or are you saying that credit trades should be used doing spreads, to limit loss.

sure sounds like you have an axe to grind. EVEN THOUGH, I've been agreeing with you the entire thread....on the exposure to risk...you're still arguing. This is the basic premise of this whole thread: Badtrades: yeah this is my strat. Its risky I know. Dest: yeah your trade strategy is...

Do you not make trades based on assumptions? or beliefs of something happening or not happening? or some sort of expectation?

Again, reading into things. I've been saying What I (me - not anyone else) personally believe that the likelihood of something happening in the last hour is unlikely. Its the same belief that YOU probably have when taking a trade. You think, something won't happen, which is why you make a trade.

Sure. So, show me where in this thread I disagreed with anything you're saying.

no one is arguing the merits of any strategy with you. You keep trying to flex you "intellect" when it comes to options. Not once did I even say you were wrong and I was right. And where did I disagree with what you stated? I even agreed with you that it was possible. heck. Anything is...

Why do you keep suggesting that I'm saying I have some sort of edge? you're reading too much into what I'm saying. My only belief is that, in 1 hour, at expiration, the likelihood of a really big event to happen, is unlikely and I hope that I don't get assigned. That is all. For this trade...

So what do you think people should trade? If something works, is it not best to use it until it no longer works? Provided you're not blowing your account up? My strategy is to: 1) establish strangles by legging in based on whichever IV level it is at. 2) Do this strategy only on expiration...

update - i carried out partial plan. sold a 195 put for 1.14. closed at 0.9. closed short stock at 195.60 net 0.2. so the loss is negligible. imo the short call 195.50 shouldnt have been assigned because of the close of 195.45. had it not been, i wouldve been in the clear. so between friday...

yeah youre absolutely right. I guess im just banking on 1) its such a narrow range that the spy will move outside that area. 2) collecting premium over time will offset the 1.32 unrealized loss, which should happen im <10 weeks.

sorry you're right. i wasnt thinking about the inbetween, completely missed that. so if spy stays between 195.50-197, then its an unrealized "loss" on the short position. If thats the case Ill just reestablish a similar position. and hopefully the credit will outweigh the difference in strikes.

yeah i agree the risk reward isnt great. when you sell atm options, how long of a duration do you go for? Im assuming you close out one side as it moves in your favor, and reestablish at a diffrrent date? when youre picking your strikes, if youre atm theres a high probability of it going past...

how are they "sure thing" bets? I never even remotely suggested they were. arent we all trying to make pennies when it comes to options? you're either picking up a few cents in theta, picking up a few cents in being right in direction. the only thing thats different is risk:reward profiles...

i completely agree. definitely risky. definitely a chance to have my ass handed to me. the thing is, i enter these trades last hour or less. these ones were entered 20 minutes to closing. of course anything can happen, but i believe its highly improbable. not sure what you mean by gimmicky though..

yup u got it.

yeah i know the after hours went up. i cant really buy the strangle back at this point since the contracts are already expired. What intend to do is sell a put at 195 and buy a call at 197 for september 25.. i sold the strangles OTM thinking theyd expire worthless. my plan for being put shares...

well the trade technically shouldnt be carried into the weekend, since the options are OTM and the expiration was on sept 18. if im mistakeb, please correct me. the spy closed at 195.45, my short calls were 195.50, 196 and short put 194.50,195. all legged into in the last hour of trading. so...

I don't find your site too user friendly. There isn't a feature (from what I've seen) to be short stock, long stock, short/long options. If there is, its not really clear.

can you explain? thanks.

I guess you can. So I sold two strangles in the last hour of trading spy. strikes were picked based on my last hour trading strategy. 195.50/195 196/194.50 made credit of 0.3 approximately. So far Ive been doing this for 6 weeks. No lossss yet. So wish me luck guys! Spy closes at 195.45...