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grrr...wish I had traded more contracts. Still, nice Xmas pressie for myself.

Now I know why you're getting coach to update his positions all the time! :) Top right of page there is a search link. On the search page, enter the name of the poster e.g. "rdemyan" Enter some search text, e.g. "Fed" Choose where to search e.g. "Forums -> Journals" etc. I'm sure...

lol. Here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=869308#post869308

This is a good rule of thumb, though I'm personally a little more conservative than that - I rarely have confidence in huge moves in any direction. This is key...it's very difficult to play the smile/skew by itself for profit. Agreed, unless you are very lucky to have IV explode in...

Chrdso, Little late in replying here but: What you might be missing, that Phil alludes to, is that IN GENERAL when SPX rises, the IV goes down (across the board) meaning that the entire IV skew becomes transposed lower more or less. When you look at the volatility graph on ToS, that is...

Chrdso, If you're talking about simply going long a call for example, then yes, buying ATM which will be at the bottom of the smile might be considered wise from an IV point of view. If you buy further OTM then as the underlying rises the option slips down the smile which might offset any...

You say tomato, I say tomahto, you say bee-yach, I say hippie chick. Yes, discussion always useful...but not at the expense of getting RSI. I need better posture and/or a life.

Nuff said :D

Okey doke, but.....we both know that SET doesn't neccessarily correspond with where the market actually goes. So, what I meant was, whilst your TA might say that resistance for SPX is at 1220, that doesn't constrain where SET might end up due to the way it is calculated i.e. SPX might very...

Me thinks you right...and you made a nice bit of pocket money from that too.

Phil, Not to nitpick or anything. You make money, I make money, everybody is happy but......I have to question how you use TA to work out where SET is/could end up given the nature of how it is calculated. That is, unless you apply TA to all 500 stocks and look at best/worst case scenarios...

Good point. This was key last expiration. After the Thursday close, a big co. came out with some positive earnings (can't remember which) and the futures were looking bullish. So a positive SET the next day looked probable. Because options trade till 4.15 EST (bizarely, some people don't know...

Optionwriter, Suggest you search the thread for multiple discussions on SET risk etc. I know it's a long thread but spending a weekend reading the ENTIRE thread is well worth it. More specifically, last comments by Phil on the matter here...

Andy, Btw, nice trade if you did it. XEO has gone nowhere since last exp. Perfect month for sideways strategies. $9 initial vs. current $5.60

To be sure, to be sure, there's gold in them thar posts. Distro = distribution. It's generally accepted that IV of ATM options (CALLs and PUTs) are a good predictor of future volatility under the right circumstances. There are numerous papers written on this subject with varying...

Labib, I'm sure coach will give you his opinion in due course. In the mean time, here is my take on the situation: Looking at the synthetic debit equivalent is always a good idea as a matter of habit. As I'm sure you know the credit spread and the synthetic equivalent maintain a pretty...

Ditto. Possibly a by-product of MMs wanting to get flat in a hurry for end of day and/or looking at futures movement to gauge the next days direction.

Andy, Put calendars are a possibility. Looking at diagonals and back spreads too. Might even slap on a three month straddle or something if the price is right. I'm mulling over the "options"...more interested in trying to capture volatility than direction at the moment but who knows I may...

George, I think I offered an explanation for why this strategy might be viable for some even with low IV here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=874893#post874893 Momoney.

Mmmmm.... I hope it does keep going up. The higher it goes, the lower VIX becomes. My mouth is watering at the prospect of loading into long vega and possibly short delta positions. Momoney.