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Good point. That explains why the market has bounced up.

OK, got it. Had I taken 2 seconds to examine the strikes I probably would have realised that's what you meant. However, good to clarify for everyone's benefit. Essentially we're talking about the double butterfly strategy if you add the CALL fly. If you're trading a European exercise product...

Barrage of posts from me here LOL. Adding the CALL fly is the same as just doubling up the PUT fly or adding an iron fly with the same strikes. What is your intention for doing so?

Good luck. Caveat: it's difficult to take meaningful profits on flies outside of 10 days to exp. By adding some extra flies you can also adjust the original fly into a condor to accomodate a wider price range, though you are possibly locking in a loss by doing so. This is analagous to...

My question was in reference to the butterfly suggestion that I quoted. I was soliciting how that conversion could achieve profits if the original spread is underwater i.e. the question wasn't directed at you or questioning the merits of your initial trade

Where is the profit coming from if the spread is underwater from when it was initiated?

What kind of risk/reward are you getting for the 1 week condor? Personally find weeklies better for cheap directional bets or short term hedging as they are mostly gamma. Would like to take advantage of theta too but just not enough strike selection to make it work IMO. Good luck! MoMoney...

Hi W.D.B, Have been following along since October last year. You have once again made a call with breathtaking accuracy. The intraday peak was at circa 15:23 EST. I'm genuinely impressed. Don't go anywhere! MoMoney.

There was no need to dignify my thinly veiled sceptisicm with a response! I'm sure you have everything under control though I do think your minimum projections might be a little optimistic unless the market continues it's relentless sideways shuffle in perpetuity. In future, best to ignore my...

I'm still in the process of back testing...but will definitely start forward testing your calls as of next month. Do I have to pay? As per the fund mentioned earlier, in addition to directional plays can you arrange for the market to sit still instead? I have a 565/575/585 XEO fly and...

Ahh, congratulations - 50% of profits in one day. If the market had moved against you though you could already be down 50% LOL. Perhaps think of it that way? RUT is nearly twice as volatile as XEO for example. Yes good fills. Listed on ISE,CBOE and AMEX I believe. 10 point wide strikes are a...

Thanks, got it. I'm with you.

No need to worry. Am too mathematically challenged and hence options trading is the perfect vehicle for my abilities :) You rolled for .70 debit or credit? Had a scan but couldn't find original trade. MoMoney. PS. Don't mind me interupting the "Donna and Volitilitypimp" show.

Agree, am wating till next Thursday at the earliest to put on March straddles. More likely even week after that.

You may have ommitted the margin aspects from consideration. Going from naked to fly free's up a lot of margin allowing you to reuse that margin for other combos to conversion. You can build up a much larger inventory of flies vs. naked straddles for the same margin. This is a key advantage of...

Yeah, looks like it. You could buy the furthest out strangle listed to avoid being naked, though with minimum price increments you could probably get a narrower strangle for the same price.

Nick, See here for discussion between Phil and myself on doing it the other way around: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=971436#post971436 If you intend to buy the wings first then you really want IV to subsequently increase so that you can then sell the body...

MRVL came up for me too. In addition: WWY, RTP, CI, GRMN, ESRX and ACL is still there. All for March straddles. EOD data as input. Filter different to Riskarb's. Basic details are: Stock Price > $60 OI > 500 IV/HV ratio > 1.15 IV in relation to last year > 80th percentile i.e...

FYI RE: OIH 150 straddle update Stopped out on accumulated deltas (50+). Offset straddle for scratch. Stat vols seeming to be even greater than implied at the moment. Position also hurt by adverse move in IV due to recent political activity. Near 500 basis points over initial sale. May opt...

LMAO. EGARCH mumbo jumbo. Don't follow gold but on equity indices GARCH et al have been shown by some to fare little better on out of sample performance vs. IV and historical where volatility forecasting is concerned and therefore not worth my time IMO, though do have tools available e.g...