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  1. L

    FYI: Historically the Next Two Months are Down

    Specifically, what do you mean by 'normalize' for range? PS: My quote could be misunderstood as I said "In 23 years...". What that really meant is that my sample size is 23 years. I have tabular data going longer back than that, but my manual and more detailed back-test stops at 2000.
  2. L

    FYI: Historically the Next Two Months are Down

    There haven't been a September in 23 years which didn't retrace at least 40 % of the August range. The last 4 prior years were all red - taking out the prior month low - with an average change of - 5.72 %. Will this year be different? I don't know, but there's enough data to support some good...
  3. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    There haven't been a September in 23 years which didn't retrace at least 40 % of the August range. The last 4 prior years were all red - taking out the prior month low - with an average change of - 5.72 %. Will this year be different? I don't know, but there's enough data to support some good...
  4. L

    How to find an edge ?

    Haven't used it myself yet. My friend says I'm getting behind the curve if I'm not starting soon. He uses it for a ton of stuff. Mostly work related (not finance).
  5. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I like the short here for a sub 5600 move. Entry could be a little late, though. Only watching this...
  6. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I've no idea, but more chop seems likely. Last trading day of August today, so maybe that could lead to some odd moves? The last trading day of August was red for the last 7 years in a row. Around 70 % red on a broad sample and the few green days were small. Only thing I feel somewhat certain...
  7. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Personally, I see more value in why people are entering and what their views are moving forward or for any single day. That's how you can learn and improve your understanding. A single trade or several can be impressive, but there's no inherent value in it if you don't understand why a trade...
  8. L

    Another "Price TA" play... (TA haters ain't gonna like this one)

    Just checked my ignore list and it seems like everyone who's ignored me in the past came on my ignore list for some reason. You're removed from the list, f**kers. I'm not a fan of that functionality at all.
  9. L

    Another "Price TA" play... (TA haters ain't gonna like this one)

    I wonder how many are actually able to see Scat's posts. Hmmm...I see it says I have him on ignore. To my knowledge it was the other way around. Don't believe I ever blocked anyone.
  10. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I only look at that one with half an eye. Seems to live a life of its own. :) Don't look too much at RTY, either. Mostly ES/NQ with the former excited to rally while the latter just have no breath lately. September could get interesting...
  11. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Only watching at this point, but NQ was showing clues preceding this drop. It's just not able to sutain any rallies. While ES was still above yesterday's range around 14:05 - NQ was already well inside yesterday's range around the mid-point.
  12. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    A bit too late now, but I was bullish on today's Open targeting at least a pop above 50. I was uncertain by yesterday's close, but the recovery in Globex and the gap up open seemed solid enough. My view for the last week and a half is that we will at least close August with a nice green candle...
  13. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Went flat at 29 just now. Hoping I wasn't low ticked, but we're probably a bit overextended short term.
  14. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Nice overnight ramp! :) Took one more long after I logged off and added one contract this morning. Unbelievably, I was 1 tick from getting stopped out overnight. 1 f**ing tick. Can't deny that there's a lot of luck in this game.
  15. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    That cracked me up this morning. Pop as in going higher?
  16. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    You mentioned real estate. One thing which helped me is to simply keep it technical and not let any thoughts of the economy influence me. As they say: the market’s not the economy. Maybe it helps I’m not from the US. For all I know it’s the Norwegian Pension Fund buying stocks at a discount.
  17. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Stopped on the long for 3 points. No more trades until tomorrow.
  18. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Been trading for a long while, so nothing suprises me. I did share some comments on this when we hit 10% down earlier. It’s more uncertain from here, IMO. Lower looks plausible, but I was thinking we could hold up until end of August.
  19. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Longed this dip at 78. Stop at 75. Worth the risk. If not, maybe September comes early this year. :)
  20. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Chop ended today, although it didn't seem like it on the Open. Believe it or not, but I caught the short today and held it for a big one. Today's LOD was the monthly Open on ES and last week's low area. Nvidia in 10 minutes, I think. Crazy that one stock appears to exert so much influence on...
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