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Me and my gutfeeling - with it’s negative EV - would think we will go up more and test the peak from mid August -4300 in the next two weeks. Positioned for that anyway. From then maybe down

Give me some time! It’s a helluva job to rewrite that website

I can read, I am from Europe. T3 is totally not considered a family car. Tesla x is. could be I am from the Netherlands, we are taller than average

Sorry this is complete nonsense. How can a tesla 3 be considered a large family car? It’s more a car for the ‘30y old professional’. For comparison, a Volvo xc90 or Skoda enyaq can be considered a large family car.

Most of times, media (implied ) volatility overstates realized volatility you need to amplify emotion to sell something, whatever something is

why would the market stay in this range? Statistics up/down stay 50/50 imo it’s just my view, as soon as you can identify a range”, miss break ‘em “you can replace range by any chart pattern

To complement, if you mis the worst 25 days, this will have the same impact, but inverted-verified this. Next, from simple heuristics, the chance of missing a 'good' day equals (somewhat) the chance missing a 'bad day', and both are extremely low (25/5000 or 0.005%) with random picks. data: spy...

Your bankroll will be wiped because the stakes become to large in a losing streak, or the table has a limit

Hi yes the payoff structure at expiration is very easy, one can do it in your head (or 3 columns in excel if you want). Exposure to the greeks is another story ofcourse. Since you use these websites, you may find this one better: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/butterfly.html

I understand the pay-off structure, i tried to design it around the outcome i would found most plausible, ea move up or make a relatively large move down. It now loses the most if prices stalls/moves a little down. I would basically think the outcome distribution of these kind of trades would be...

I’m thinking about setting up a trade on GOOG on next Monday, or any other day in the beginning of next week if GOOG will move around 110. I would like to lay out the basics of the idea and let it open for (hopefully good) critique and recommendations on this mindfart after a good run. The idea...

Certainly no big shot (300k+ pa) here, maybe medium shot. All I meaned was just to say it's a forever/always on thing, also when you are 'swing trading'. GL on your endavour!

It sounds like you only trade theoratically and have no real world experience. It's the same in the large trading and investing firms. They just log into their system in the morning for one minute and let the systems run. They even do this remote nowadays, learned by covid, and relax on tha...

True about ML, but GAN’s is a different animal

Italy is a very beautiful country to live, but is low on innovation and economics. Education standard is generally lower and the smart people often move up to the nordic or west countries in europe

To summarize, you are looking for a representative sample. Suppose you have a method using options and want to replicate a bear market like 2000/2001 (no option data). The closest thing (I think) is to take some (index) declines and 'lengthen' them combined with random shuffeling the days...

Sometimes I say the youngsters (25-30y olds) to do something like this. Just take the 'decade approach'. These people are not dumb, math phd's etc. Nobody is really interested (not anyone asking follow-up questions etc). I'm starting to think this has something to do with the psychological...

I read about it, some even 100%, but only with bars prior to 2021

I understand how you think, but actually behavioral and social science relies on math. That’s why you see so many people with this background in data science. Math is not necessarily ‘linear’. Data mining can also spark ideas, at least it did with me. So it is not as black and white as you...

Not necessarily true, data mining is an industry. biggest problems arise when this is mixed with hope and cognitive bias