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Your right this market doesn't move smoothly, it explodes from one direction to the other. In July 2007 the up tick shorting rule was eliminated. Look at the attached 3 year chart of VIX (Volatility Index). The 40 week moving average (equivilent of the 200dma) of the VIX (Volatility...

"I share your sentiment like you read my mind!" "I think regardless of oil prices, bad economic data, or even bad earnings, there is nothing that will stop the mutual fund managers from continuing to drive the markets higher. Seasonality and year end bonuses trump everything else!"

Notice on the attached 3 year chart of the VIX that the 40 week moving average was trendless (relatively flat) until July 2007 when the uptick rule was eliminated. This created a rising VIX supported by the rising 40 week moving average (200 day moving average). "With the Curbs eliminated...

Some time before the close tomorrow, I am going to take a bullish position on the SPY. Two reasons for it: 1: Fed cute will pop market next week. 2: Going into next week, end of month window dressing for most mutual funds and end of Fiscal year for some Mutual Funds.

Chris, The problem with OEX options is Volatility. As the VIX shoots above 15 into the 20-25 area, OEX options get priced rediculously high and the bid to ask spread gets extremely wide. Then if the VIX drops while your holding, even if the market goes in your direction the OEX options...

Thanos, You really hit the nail on the head. Excellent summary! To elaborate on what your saying with an example: Look at the attached chart of the SPX and notice that there is solid support at 1490. The markets have touched it a couple times in the past few days and bounced upward like...

The sad part about the way the market is using the Fed is: The powers to be tank the market before a Fed Meeting so Bernie will lower the rates. In reality the only thing that really drives a stock market higher is good earnings reported by 75% or more of the companies in the SP500. For the...

My trading system is insanely complicated. I use a combination of several things that I have learned through the years. 1: Candlestick Charts and simple moving averages using various timeframes to establish long term, intermediate term, short term and micro-time frame support and resistance...

Having traded both stock and index options for about 10 years, I "totally agree" with the comments by Ctarmor-et and MTE. Index and index tracking stocks like the SPY options are much more consistent in performance, less volatilie in whipsaw markets (like the present market), and are...

I had a few similar problems with I.B. back in 2001 and 2002, but programming upgrades to the TWS through the years has eliminated any further problems for me. On one incident I ended up having to eat the losses and on the other incident it proved to be a favorable glitch. One thing I...

Joe, The summer of 2005 was the peak of the housing boom and it was also the peak sales of the sub-prime loans. Most sub-prime loans have a life of 5 years. Summer of 2005 to the Summer of 2010 is 5 years. Housing will start recovering in mid 2010. Jeff

Peter Lynch said it over 20 years ago on the Fidelity TV commercials: "The stock market is simple, its all about earnings." So far this this 3rd quarter reporting period, we have way too many earnings and revenue misses. I haven't seen this happen in the entire 4.5 years of this bull...

The attached 5 year chart of the Housing Index (HGX) shows that Index turning bearish when the HGX had its first monthly closing candle below its previously supporting rising 20 month moving average in May-06. Every rally attempt since then has failed at the declining 20 month moving...

I asked my neighbor "The Great Carnac" for his predictions and here is what he pulled out of his hermetically sealed mayonnaise jar that was guarded by the firm of "Funk and Wagnel": 1: Two .25 rate reductions between now and Dec-07. 2: Market trade ranges until Oct-07 with higher than...

Good questions John, I enjoyed the correspondence. Jeff

Forex, I sympathize with your decision to quit. When I was first learning to trade options, I blew out 2 accounts in the first year! Then I decided it was time to stop trading and start learning. Here what I learned in 10 years of option trading: 1: "Money Management and Trade...

Here is the VIX chart from the beginning of the short rule change to present time.

Take a look at the attached charts of the VIX and SPX, from the beginning (July 9) of the short rule change to present time. One can hardly make the argument that everything is the same. This was a first step for market participants to have a slightly more level playing field.

Bender, If you have a margin account with less than $25,000 in it, you can only day trade options 3 times a week. A margin account with $25,000 or greater can do unlimited option day trades. If you have a cash account with less than $25,000, you can do option day trades up...

You can see on the attached 4 year chart of the SPX, the long term uptrend is still intact. The 80 week MA has supported every retracement of every year in this 4 years old this bull market (on a weekly closing basis). "But, there is almost always a re-test of that support area, so we may...