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Because the fed buys very little long bonds compared to intermediate bonds. Also, the fed isn't overly concerned about the mtg rate.

6% unemployment and 2% on core CPI. This is pretty well known, isn't it?

If I may step into a basic reading comprehension lesson here, ES, RCG's claim is, "Astro alone, is the cause of these moves." It is not " I am fairly certain I and several others could outperform you" The second statement is in fact not his core claim; it's entirely ancillary.

Don't you see? Peer review is for pseudo-rationalist clones; The scientific process is for pseudo-rationalist clones; Skepticism is for pseudo-rationalist clones; Correlation is for pseudo-rationalist clones; Our man Suryananda is the only non-pseudo superstitious individual here.... (I think...

That you can use it to make money? (:confused: <- that's me scratching my head trying to figure out what your problem is)

Isn't that the whole point of studying momentum? That it shows the basic formulation of market efficiency is inadequate? Your objections seem to have completely nothing to do with momentum.

Wait... what exactly does Milton Friedman has anything to do with this? It's not like Milton Friedman argued against the existence of momentum. Please explain what's the difference between "trade" and "bet"? Also, they are still around.

What does 'basic economics' always teach us? enlighten us also - you do realize some of the world's largest CTAs and hedge funds trade on momentum strategies right? not exactly vague theories.

The point of the academic research into momentum is to show that such an effect exist (and its implications on a wide set of other theories on fundamental market structures), not whether it's a profitable investment approach; For the latter, check with the hedgies and asset managers who use such...

Since it's hard to post equations on ET, I'll link ONE paper on the matter instead, http://www.cenet.org.cn/userfiles/2010-6-13/20100613145858930.pdf And perhaps the best known paper on the subject, Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 1993, “Returns to buying winners and selling losers...

Good to know your 'major' gives you the credential to pass flippant judgment on post graduate level research; I'm curious, why is it a 'story tale'? What is it about momentum effect that you find not credible?

-69 <- see? a much more interesting number. What exactly are you :confused: (apparently that's a confused icon) about?

What's your problem? Momentum effect has been pretty well document in a vast amount of economics and finance literature.

I don't presume your level of sophistication or the size of your trading account - but do want to point out that in order for 0.35% a year to equate to 1,000 Euros, your trading account's margin + cash deposit needs to be 285,714 Euros. If you are trading around those sizes or bigger on your...

You probably can't without taking a hair cut. From a US broker's perspective, cash/short term treasury bills/notes are essentially risk free since the liability on your futures positions are denominated in the same currency. But the euro is not; He incurs bigger risk in letting you keep the...

Large CTAs sweep their cash in and out of their broker accounts according to the minimum margin requirements on a daily basis so that excess money can be put to work elsewhere (like buying bills, for example). You can always convert the euro to dollar and then buy US t-bills. But isn't this...

You mean like the German Bills? For example, the 4/13/2011 maturity german sovereign bills (ISIN DE0001115715) looks to be around 0.356% on the offer side. If your broker allows fixed income trading, then that's all the info you need. Am I missing something?

Your question was already answered by nazzdack - not sure why you keep asking for ideas.

While I disagree with the spirit of this as I believe threads belong to the community (and idealistically allow the less experienced members to continue asking and learning from the thread starter's question), I do respect that this is your community rule. That being said, my original...

Does the thread starter need any reason to close his thread by emailing you? I had always thought that he would need some reasonable cause. But if that's not the case - that any thread starter can close his own thread at his discretion - then I obviously withdraw my original objection...