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See the above, inflation corrected chart. What does coin tossing allow for any of those? The point of the system is to beat coin tossers. That isn't hard.

No, you've simply ignored or insulted the people that have disagreed. You posted your equations. Everyone understands that each individual day's amount (whatever the ES does from 16:15 day one to 16:15 day two) can be either a win or loss amount. There's no debate there. Show me how ALL...

She might be able to understand this, even though you can't: Guaranteed to beat 100% of coin tossers and 95% of traders.

Still waiting for break-even proof. You're all about proof, PROVE break-even (minus costs, obviously). For the umpteenth time, the market is not a roulette table and you are not correctly factoring in infinitely variable win and loss AMOUNTS. The reality is, buy and hold beats this system.

I like him, but I lol'd pretty good.

That doesn't address the question. The underlying win/loss amount is variable by (for all practical purposes) an infinite amount. Show me how you can claim the system is break-even before costs. All you're showing is that there's a 50/50 chance of losing or gaining EACH SPECIFIC AMOUNT...

Strawman. You're avoiding the issue.

Yea, I get that. You're saying break-even MINUS costs, I get that. I left off the minus costs to simplify and save myself typing. You're saying it's break-even before costs? Prove it.

Then it's NOT break-even? Let me ask you straight up, and, yes, "proof" means "guarantee" - is it absolutely break-even? Can you prove that it's break-even? Beating 95% of traders means nothing because you haven't PROVED that 95% are losers (since you're all about calling for proof)...

Depends if you're able to arrange that. I said I wanted proof, show me proof. Wiki commutitive property didn't say anything.

And if you started trading this morning it looks short biased. What's your point? If your coin toss method only works... when it works... then what's the point?

See above post. Even when your coin toss sample size is large enough to hit 50/50, there's nothing guaranteeing you aren't winning on the small moves and losing on the big moves. I don't need to post a chart of the DOW for you, you know damn well it's biased long. How do you figure a 50/50...

No. You prove break-even first. Look at a chart of the DOW since the 20's. If you had 50/50'd that you wouldn't have a pot to piss in, much less an internet connection to post on. I want to see proof of break-even first. Your logic works in the casino with a fixed win/loss. It doesn't...

You don't seem to realize that you aren't playing roulette with a fixed $100 per spin. You're trading the ES without stops. Your win and loss amounts are NOT fixed. You could throw tails for a week straight in this market and blow your account to hell. What then? There's a massive difference...

Explain it. What law of nature says it HAS to even out? The heads/tails of a fair coin will eventually even out. Where's the statistical rule that says your given win/loss AMOUNTS have to also even out? I can toss a coin to predict whether the sun will rise tomorrow. The toss results will...

Sorry, I just don't see it. As already pointed out by someone else, you can have 5 wins totaling 50 ticks and 5 losses totaling 50 ticks, you think that's the real world? The real world says you can just as easily have 5 wins totaling 5 ticks and 5 losses totaling 100 ticks. What then? You...

I have yet to see explained the win/loss SIZE issue. The number of wins and losses are irrelevant, what matters is the SIZE of each. Your "break-even minus commissions" statement is based on the faulty assumption that your average win and your average loss will be identical - that isn't the...

I'd like to know how everyone handles their off days. I don't necessary mean a losing day. Today, I've only lost a relatively small amount so far. It's not the loss that concerns me. It's the fact that I just feel off. Does anyone ever just feel out of touch with the market, like you...

I've been following this thread since the beginning and it now appears we have a winner...

Where's that "how to be a guru" thread? :D