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spending hours to watch recordings of yourself trading looks like a huge waste of time. A screenshot would be sufficient. If you cannot spell out your reasons, they probably aren't good enough.

60? An average of around 40 here, +10 to account for an older society, +10 for the trivia fact making it to the news.

If I know that it's an oil's big bull run, why don't I simply go long or buy the dip? I don't understand the point of strategies predicated on knowing the market direction. on topic: a consistently losing strategy would be an onleveraged strategy. Unleveraging it will not help you.

if you are paid xccy for lending AUD versus USD and paid xccy for lending USD versus EUR, then it should follow that you're paid for lending AUD versus EUR?

AUD and NZD because their banks issue their debt in USD and swap into local currencies. http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2013/jun/7.html

In a "fair" FX swap you sell me some spot GBPUSD and buy GBPUSD from me on a forward basis. Since you invest your USD proceeds at a better rate than I invest the GBP you gave me, we fix the forward so that I am compensated for holding a lesser-yielding currency (so that I sell you the forward...

the only answer would come from an fx trader who knows what inputs hes using. you can TRY using t-bill rate for USD side (or fed funds) and SONIA for GBP, while keeping in mind that the forward rate will deviate from the IRP (the cross-currency basis). You can't get this latter figure without...

Obviously yes for sizing. No for monitoring or analysis. It is useful to see if returns came from price appreciation or from fx movements, see if I am happy with local price, current FX rate and expected correlation. For example, looking at Russian MICEX index gain of 45+% in 2016 seems rather...

so how do you feel about tax cuts in Italy, France or Greece without corresponding decrease in spending?

no, nothing, that bit of msg wasn't directed at you.

I am slightly sceptical that modern day investors behave in the same fashion the ones in nineteenth century did esp when it comes to gold cus I'd imagine back then the idea that gold is just a usual commodity was preposterous. It would also be interesting if you included international equities...

@Daal attached pic with fred2 data. @pyradius yields as decimals. also you haven't changed 30 to 10 for calculation of 10y duration.

you can approximate in excel if rough calcs are fine for you with =DURATION(C7, C7+365*30, D7, D7, 2) where c7 = observation date, d7 = 30y yield on the observation date. The ratio will asymptotically decrease as yields go higher. In the below red assumes that 30y yield = 10y yield and blue...

Damodaran's formula is correct including /12 part, +44% is feasible if yields drop around 5%. For more precision you can replace 10 with 9.9167 to account for a new security having 1 month shorter maturity and interpolate between your new yield of the 10y with some shorter term bond (2y, 5y?) to...

Nextera energy has positive net income, so you can use that instead of cash flows. Cash flows are negative due to capex, so you can assume decent earnings growth under assumptions their spending makes sense.

Apart from my views on the merit of fading the move in yields, that's what occurred in my mind when I looked at net positions: - 1m contracts is 100b of treasuries. That's 3 day trading volume in cash in this maturity sector. Not sure it makes sense to look at futures positioning without...

wiki says first 3m bills were issued at an auction in 1929, so you're not missing much. Between around 1917 and 1929 you had fixed rate tenders that resulted in oversubscription cus the coupons were set too high. Prior to that there was no need in short-term paper (src: wiki)...

Could you pls explain the ECB repo rumours from this week? The Reuters article didn't clear everything for me. Okay, there is shortage of german bonds, so 1) it reduces amount of collateral in the system and thus lending volumes, 2) makes shorting bunds more expensive. I am not sure how lending...

We could borrow a line from Trump. Make Europeans pay their fair share of military spending and re-direct the money toward education. This would level muricans and europeans in terms of education. Americans will no longer be the butt of the jokes about stupidity. Alternatively, it could bankrupt...

Are there specific channels how the ECB decision will move the spread or just heightened volatility that can throw things in disarray? My guesses would be: QE programme change: both CTD's are about same issue size, with yields comfortably above depo rate, both non-benchmarks - so roughly same...