Search results

What makes you so certain that my results are due to 100% to chance (i.e. luck?). That's the P value I'm trying to figure out and the reason for this thread. Not just willy nilly - seat of the pants - type analysis (like my trading style). I want to know if the P value of my results is 0.05...

I thank you for your help and introduction to R value. After looking on the internet, it seems that: I can now calculate the Kelly%, the optimal amount I should be trading to maximize profits. Kelly% = W - (1-W)/R = 0.64 - (1-0.64)/1.41 = 0.38 According to what I've read, 80% of...

Thank you Mike for explaining this to me. I always felt a little inferior for not being able to describe my "edge" as other than experience (basically failing the old adage: if you have to think about it, you don't have one). I didn't know that what you describe above would be considered...

Intradaybill, Thanks. That is extremely helpful. But sometimes I scale in/out of my trades - though not all the time. How do I account for this regarding calculating wins and losses? Also sometimes I hedge my positions using options. Anyway, perhaps I can still make this calculation on...

Perhaps I should mention also: I'm a pure discretionary trader. I usually don't hold longer than a few days to weeks. My trading system is based on what I see on the charts and hear in the news - not really a "system" per se. Sorry, I do not know how to describe it but it isn't important...

I would like to determine the probability of my success being due to chance alone (and thus not my skill). I started trading futures for the first time on May 25, 2010 (although I also know how to trade options and stock also - so I'm not an absolute beginner). On a 100k account I'm up a...

You make an important point. For me trading swing trading futures, I'm happy if ES moves 20-30 points or oil 2-3 dollars or gold 10 dollars. I can't imagine trading for just 2-3 ticks. What does "really large volume" mean to those people who trade futures going for 2-3 tics? 10...

Neke, Shouldn't you stop and re-evaluate your trading strategy? You can't lose >50% of an account. That's basically the definition of blowing up an account. Something is wrong. Let me ask you and hopefully create a learning experience for everyone, from beginner to advanced traders...

Cache thank you for sharing that. I think it is truly amazing how right you are and how uncannily similar is my experience to yours over approximately the same amount of time. I can tell though as I've mentioned before that you are several steps more developed than I am as a trader - though I...

Thank you. I appreciate your advice as I'm sure many other traders here do too. However, one of my main rules is to not lose money (i.e. "preserve capital" as you say). Therefore I prefer to papertrade new strategies or modifications to current strategies to test their performance without...

Lescor, How would you approach backtesting a completely discretionary strategy based on 70% price action 20% fundamentals and 10% indicators (stoch, rsi, macd, bands, etc.) I'm trying to develop an "edge" instead of relying on just skill/experience and money/risk mgmt. Thanks a bunch.

Cache, Having started around the same time as you (1999 for me) and also trading options exclusively then moving on to futures, I think we're at about the same place. But I'm a little behind you in terms of development (probably because I focused on medicine instead of trading). For me the...

See, it was ridiculous to think a few options trades gone bad could wipe out the remaining $200k in Neke's account. Nobody could be that bad at trading - that amount is at least an Audi R8!

There are many ways to measure trading results. For me, my trading capital would not be earning that much in a savings account or money market and that is what I'm comparing to so I use % return / month - to compare overall total returns vs. some other instrument. Profit / share seems to...

How can that be? I though he had around 200k left. He could not have lost all that since last week or so.

Hi Neke thanks for sharing this journal. From what I've read from others about you, you are a good trader. However, I do not understand your risk mgmt policy and WHY you have chosen this policy - which too me seems as if excessive risk is being taken unnecessarily. Can you please shed light...

I just realized $40k / month of $1M buying power is 4% return. The results of course are magnified from the $110k starting capital. That means if I get 2-3+% / month, it's not that bad which is what I was trying to figure out - this being my first time to trade semi-pro. I just wasn't...

Now that I've had a chance to read some other peoples results on this forum, 2-3% is pretty LOW. Fine. It's better than next to nothing in a savings account.

Thanks all for the responses. I know 2 months is short (well 3 if you count my papertrade month), and I'll keep working at it while keeping medicine #1. Part of the concern is that I don't want to leave money in a savings earning nothing, I'd rather put it to work trading it slowly with...

Thanks for the response lescor. I will keep refining the system as you recommend - which means fixing psych issues. The mental mind games such as 1) selling way too soon to take profit and it's corollary 2) being afraid to lose real money make my results much poorer than in the papertrading...