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I'm familiar with it. Interestingly, the academic community is painfully behind what the gambling and trading community has been doing in this arena (and in large part, because we have not played by their rules, and they have made little attempt to do anything but build on past endeavors in...

I'll do what I can to answer things (I'm just learning myself, though that's been going on for decades on this obsession of mine). Yes. (And FWIW I am "Math challenged" too). Yes, very true -- most people's criteria in trading does not encompass seeking "expected growth-optimality, all else...

Before you even begin looking to "backtest" anything, get a grasp of he second arc sine law, and how that might affect the results you see with any trading system.

No, I don't. Sorry. It would be a great idea though for some sort of intern, I'll look into it. It an also get pretty computationally intense & lengthy (its a genuine distributed processing problem as the number of components starts to increase). It gets even more intense when we look to solve...

The far end of the constat mat yield curve is absolutely linear for the 10, 20 and 30 year. When it is linear to concave (i.e. 20 < (10+30)/2) it has been VERY bullish in the post Robt Rueben world.

The Kelly Criterion is just a postulate. Kelly (and Graham as well as Shannon, both of who signed off on the paper) solved for this supposed asymptotic growth-optimal fraction in the 1956 Bell Labs paper, despite the fact that they thought they did solve for it. Actually, they solved for...

Points well-taken. Backtesting is, much like paper-trading in the sense you discuss, a way to gain a feel, an experience, for how prices move, for someone who has not experienced such through an intimate and lengthy experience. But I would never trade something developed on past data. To do so...

Indeed they do, and you need a strategy for exactly that. This is why I am averse to backtesting, etc.

Man's progress is ever-upwards, in fit and spits, furts and spurts. At least it's been that way since the watering hole scene in Kubrick's 2001. Equity prices reflect this. Humanity itself is a bubble. Bear markets are buying opportunities. Never go short. If for no other reason, the long side...

You cannot get advice on how to succeed in trading or any other endeavor. You can get good pointers or general principles, but that's the most anyone can tell you about how to succeed at what should be your "telos," the over-arching goal you look to succeed at. Everyone can tell you how to fail...

No. Trading seemed hard, dangerous in fact, back then, As it does (and should) today. Market conditions should not affect you or your strategy. Find something that works and execute it.

I've been trading the same thing for over 20 years, save for minor adjustments as new markets emerge, etc. 2017 was, ultimately, despite being an insanely bullish year - uncharted territory at that - like any other year for me. I've found the LESS I have to change, having reached a certain...

You're best off to trade it yourself. Keep trying to plough more money into it. You will inevitably go through tough periods. Having even friends and family aboard will multiply the pressure and stress, and every market wiggle and jiggle will strain you. Trading it yourself is stress enough. And...

<<you mean reverse engineer a financial target (requirement) eg $5m by age 60? and then take that into designing and trading a system accordingly including factors such as position size and expectancy? >> That's one way to do it I suppose. Again, it depends entirely on what you are trying to do...

Right down to never having a f***ing notebook.

Limit Orders. Always.

Wow. I think you're missing the obvious, and most of us do The first question to be answered is that of your criterion; WTF are you doing in this game? What do you want to accomplish? And for individuals,this can be difficult. "I want to make a good return on my money," or some other, nebulous...

But the results you guys are citing here have a tremendous survivorship bias, as do the big hedge fund performance indexes (Barclays, Credit Suisse, etc.).It doesn't account for all the funds that evaporated along the way, The road narrows.

It sounds as though you are speaking of futures, and I am speaking of essentially, everything else (equities, private equity / lending, etc.) I agree the US regulatory agencies in that arena are onerous, and I would not start anything in the US that included being under their jurisdiction. I...

No, set it up in NYC. There are several regulatory reasons for this, but also for marketing. You can always build out a master-feeder structure later if that becomes necessary. Do it by the book and top shelf. Don't cut corners on anything. Expect to pay $300,000 to stand it up, then t that add...