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US$ seems to be getting bid today. Oil pricing is a function of FED action going forward. (Reuters) - Oil consolidated close to $83 on Tuesday, steadying after two days of gains as the dollar rose and ahead of a report that is expected to show an increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. From...

I agree it is an over simplification to lay the entire blame on the significant collapse in pricing on the unwinding of excessive speculative positions. If fundamentals correctly placed prices at ~$140/bbl in June 08, I have a hard time understanding why the current price remains so far from...

psytrade - Great article on economic aspects of Marine Transportation. I worked in the shipping business for 20+ years. This article touched on a wide range of subjects, much of which are independent of oil prices. The reference (inserted in green below) to Brent spreads is the most relevant...

You are probably correct as you are trading it every day and can see that the current relationships in place (dollar down, crude up). Your calls and the folks on CL Redux are fascinating to follow. If the world sees a significant trade war as a result of the current stresses in FX exchange...

The CFTC has been in the business of monitoring the level of speculation in regulated commodity markets for years. Position limits are created to constrain pure speculation to a level that provides for price discovery without becoming excessive to a point where it can drive pricing beyond...

trefoil - Nice summary on the pound, thanks for the history lesson :) Like you I believe the dollar's reserve status has a long run ahead of it. For sure we need better thinking from the folks in Washington. Its hard to have conviction in the current "uncharted waters" when so much in that...

Great story. Your point about trade duration says a lot about how trading has changed for many over the years. For balance, my best trade came playing the seasonal in NG in the fall of 2000. Supply constraints and weather launched NG to unheard prices. This combined with partial (therefore...

The fact that I read this entire thread suggests I'm mentally doomed :) Perhaps the world really ended on Y2K. Give it a rest man. You may have your own version of the "Chaos" trade on, but everyone else ain't interested in the details. Unless of course you can paint a blow by blow scenario...

Nice links :) Things are looking a bit more like we need a Louvre Accord to stabilize the biggest "reserve currency" from the collective impacts of it's central banker and it's Wall Street based Financial Industry. The recession of the early 80's resulted from an "oil shock" and...

For anyone wanting to build a better picture of oil markets, the United States Energy Information Agency has great set of articles located at the following link: Oil Market Basics If you want a glimpse of how even global markets can be manipulated, check out this U.S. Senate Permanent...

NICE Never owned a Ferrari, but I have no doubt that you made a better choice. The 328's (and later evolutions) always had better / cleaner lines than the Tet's. The Tet's were more about flash. I suspect the 328's were better balanced and probably drove rings around the Tet's in the twisties :D

Looks like the Fed is not going to carry the day - Bluff Called - Will the Fed carry on unilaterally and precipitate a trade war and another global financial crisis? Is the only alternative a second recession or worse in the US? These are tough and scary times. Quote from Reuters

Without disagreeing with JP Morgan :) it would seem logical that in order for the situation in France to be significant going forward, it would have to have been a significant negative to pricing already. Currency adjusted pricing (not $ pricing) is the biggest factor in the S/D picture. Oil...

Holy Sh-- Can you give composure lessons :) Great story. Of course it won't be complete until you fess up about your "dream car" [Make, Model, Color, etc.]

+1 Lets face it, political candidates with good ideas can't win because the voters don't want bad news and the insiders won't make their bank. How do you fix it? Just wait - It fixes its self. The only question is how awful the solution will be.

Great Link - Thanks for posting it :) Fascinating Presentation - Lots of Good Advice / Perspective

Too funny :)

I'm not looking for pity, but though it would be fun to share this really dumb trade from my past. To get the ball rolling on stories in this thread. So many here try to sound so knowledgeable and seem to enjoy looking down their noses at noobs. These are the worst kind of posters who...

Reading this thread is an engaging experience. Your thought provoking analysis, fantastic charts, great advice (from you and the SIFU's here), and the interesting questions raised here make this a daily must read journal. The successes and evolution of your trading is very inspiring thing to...

Lots of good advice here. The decision on how to handle withdrawls is absolutely based on how well you are capitalized. I like Jack and Boli's takes here. Going full time is an evolution based on understanding the mathematics of ruin and the expected returns for your trading approach. IMHO -...