Search results

I really do believe the CPI! Inflation is well anchored. I believe I believe I believe. If I say it enough, maybe it will become true. And the government never lies, honest people over there, they would never want to lowball inflation to give out lower Social Security payments and...

LOL. Have you been watching the grain markets over the past 20 years? This is the most active those markets have been during that whole time. Fast moves that we haven't seen since the 1970s. The current grain market is not hype. This is the most bullish market since the 70s. Most...

If you are going to short, I would short the July 08 and not the May 08. The old crop is like a tinder box that is ignitable on any sniff of a supply squeeze. At least by July, there will be new crop coming in. Still think the risk reward is poor for a short at this point.

This is watching financial history in the making. We are seeing dramatic moves in commodities, inflation is just ready to explode from all the liquidity thrown out there in the face of tight commodity supplies. As I mentioned before, when you have an ever growing supply of money, growing...

Depends on the broker, but the commission is usually $25.00 to buy the T-bill. If you buy the T-bill at the weekly auction, you don't have to pay the bid-ask spread, otherwise everytime you buy or sell, you are paying the spread. T-bills can be bought in increments of $1000 face value.

If all of this is true, and obviously the market is forward looking, why is the dollar so weak? Why are commodity prices increasing so rapidly? Everything you say is stating that the market is wrong. The commodity and currency markets are stating that there is dollar inflation and you are...

Deflation is the contraction of money supply. Inflation is the expansion of money supply. Look at gnome's posts on the money supply. It is clear that the Fed is pumping out a lot of money. And we are not even officially in a recession. The Treasury is obviously in favor of a weak dollar...

The government has this little toy they call the CPI, it spits out numbers that they want to have spit out! And guess what? Thats was Social security is based on for liabilities. So while the real inflation rate is higher than the CPI, the government can get away with giving less while...

What do you think the Fed is doing with TAF? Replacing junk CDOs and mortgage backed securities with cash. How about the dollars raining out of the Treasury with the economic stimulus package? How about lowering interest rates to levels way below the rate of inflation. The Iraq war...

US economy is more likely to go the Weimar Republic post WWI Germany route than the Great Depression. We have an easy Fed, rigged inflation data, and every incentive to devalue the dollar from an American perspective, there is no way you will see deflation despite huge debts that won't be...

It was a pretty darn good ride in 79-81. Looking at the charts of that time, that would be a huge incentive to go long oil, the metals, and commodities in general. Supply demand characteristics are actually much more favorable these days with all that money from the emerging markets...

1. Buy commodities. Especially commodities that have a limited supply. That is gold, silver, platinum, oil. The ag commodities will be strong also, but less so imo and also the extreme contango effects of the grains puts a severe strain on longs over the long term. 2. Do not be quick...

LOL. The US has become 3rd world economically. 1st world weapons of mass destruction, 3rd world economic production and monetary policy. The Zimbabwean/Argentinian monetary discpline of the Fed is killing the US. And people are too dumb to realize it because they never travel outside of the...

Oil futures are NOT in contango, they are currently in backwardation, the front months are more expensive than the back months. Just buy the futures, don't screw around with ETFs and their fees. Buy the 2nd to front month and roll the contract every 2 months, its not that hard to do.

I wonder what Benny boy is going to say about inflation next time. Its still "well-anchored"? LOL. And the economy doesn't look like it will go into recession and all that jazz. America, there is little inflation, we will rescue you, money will come raining down out of the sky, the dumb...

Buy hard assets. That's the easiest way. The bad thing is that everyone else is thinking the same and commodities have run up huge over the past few months. TIPs are for losers and idiots who believe in the CPI.

Crude up $4 today, within a hair's breath of $100. Thank you Ben! Let's continue to pump out those dollars and tell everybody that inflation is contained and at a low 2%! We believe. :eek:

The only solution is to get very rich. The poor are the ones that really suffer during inflation. The wealth inequality just gets bigger.

The CPI is such horse sh.t Hedonic pricing for everything. The myth that you get more for what you pay for every year even if you have no alternative but to pay more and can't pay less. Housing prices are lower but for most of the population who already have a mortgage, it doesn't make a...