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Holy 4 yr old thread revival Batman! Given you've made 2 posts in 3 years, this must be a good one! Can you confirm the details for your example as being correct so I can analyze? It's a short front month 3 lot strangle + long 5 OTM back month PUTs + long 5 ITM back month PUTs TIA.

It actually comes directly from Interactive Brokers (see URL). It's just co-branded with Elite Trader look and feel.

Who said I was high? :D

Plenty of other crystal ball threads for your entertainment: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=79530 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=79486 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=78067...

Doh! You caught me. Yes I do read these market prediction threads with their endless drivel....it's an addiction. [EDIT: I see Maverick has already answered]

Nothing. Though, time flies (straddle strangle swaps) are not the same as calendar flies (cross month flies).

I would have to differ on opinion with this point.

Why was volatility high - what is it a reflection of - what is the market telling you?

Yes, all IB clients were notified :D AFAIK, the NYSE Arca pilot for penny quotes is still scheduled to start in January on certain products e.g. QQQQ www.nyse.com/press/1160647899310.html You can expect most brokers e.g. ToS, OptionsXpress to be supporting penny quotes by then...

Have a look at the recent discussions on VIX options for a start: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=78688 There's more than meets the eye to this product. Read the VIX options specifications at the CBOE site. Know what you're trading. MoMoney.

Must be for the new math they invented to make it super.

I know someone who does, but he's recently been banned LOL :D http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=589798#post589798

I noted your comments on this matter on the SPX Credit Spread Trader thread. It's sounds obvious but 90% probability is not 100% probability. How do you know you didn't experience the 1 in 10 month? Perhaps even a few times in a row. Volatility says nothing about direction. Had you been on the...

Actually, I was thinking at least 8...but we all know you have your minions in your dungeon working on manipulating the market so that you don't have to leave ET LOL :)

Try PM'ing. His last post was over a year ago.

Win/loss ratio is obviously lower than higher probability trades i.e. be prepared to lose a lot more trades than you might be used to. That doesn't mean you'll lose a lot more $. If you come from a stock trading background, this should be easy to accept. If you're coming from a high probability...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=77777

Not a lot IMO. Excluding weekend effect, VIX was not much different from Friday most of the day. Little bit of fear due to blip on Sunday + lower open perhaps. FOMC policy statement et al tomorrow. At the close, demand for options -> higher VIX. This thread just gets better with age :D

I'm not sure he has ever posted the details of his blog and therefore would assume he wants it to remain private. However, an educated guess will lead you straight to it! In fact, riskarb has left a trail all over the Internet if you dig deep enough! LOL Besides, this discussion is...

The one with the larger debit is by definition more risky. PUT and CALL condors at the same strikes are synthetically equivalent. The two examples you gave were not at the same strikes.