Search results

.

You think this is possible?

Does any one know, if a CTA, who is trading mostly futures and has let's say $100 mln under management, does hold most of it in T-bills (say $80 mln), because he really needs about $5 mln to $10 mln for margin at any one time (i.e. if he wants to take positions about as large as his capital...

Does any one know, if a CTA, who is trading mostly futures and has let's say $100 mln under management, does hold most of it in T-bills (say $80 mln), because he really needs about $5 mln to $10 mln for margin at any one time (i.e. if he wants to take positions about as large as his capital...

It seems that you have a need to formalize what you are doing. You don't necessarily have to do that. In my view, you must have a system of rules in place. But they cannot be too narrow or too many, because they will hamper your ability to evolve and adapt to changing market conditions. They...

What is so amazing about his statement?

OK, let's say that you will have zero real return from stocks in the next 20 years (btw I couldn't find such 20 year periods without any real return provided that you did not buy at the top; there are however a couple of 10-year periods with flat real returns when you bought at bottoms). What's...

You did a good thing 12 months ago but now you ask the wrong question. You shouldn't compare your portfolio return with the average investor return every year because your horizon is 30 years, not one year. You should look at your portfolio return vs the average return people made on their...

I think it's much better if the client knows that the money manager is in this business for the money. This will make the client much more careful to pick a manager whom he trusts. An honest manager is better than simply a smart manager, because if at some point he realizes that he cannot...

I am aware of the difficulties related to managing outside money. Financially, it's a great opportunity, because you are not only risking your own money in the markets, but you are also selling your skills and time. If my total capital is 5% of the fund I will manage, and I make 20% a year on...

Thanks, TRS. Adopting the view that markets are impossible to beat due to perfect competition has direct implications to my managing of outside money. I want to serve my clients in the best possible way. If I don't think I can add return after trading costs and compensation, I should simply...

You are right - the idea of beating the market doesn't make much sense. What is actually implied in the active vs passive investing argument, is that you can earn about 4-6% annually after inflation if you simply hold a well diversified portfolio of productive assets such as stocks (which are...

tigerwu and tom_ma8, very good and thoughtful observations, thank you for your input. Profitable trading is indeed a constant search of an edge, and unless you are a very, very flexible and creative and observant and emotionally stable individual, and your costs are not greater than the added...

And how do I know if I am cut to be a trader?

Think about this - let's say you are 25 years old. Was it due to luck or skill that you reached that age?

To jem and Mr J : Efficient does not mean rational. You don't need to prove that markets are not rational - everyone knows that... but only in hindsight. It's easy to say that the dotcoms were ridiculously overpriced in 2000, but then they were overpriced in 1999,1998 and they could continue to...

I don't believe this... I was looking at some older threads and I stumbled on the thread "95% of traders fail???". And almost exactly five years ago this is what I wrote in that thread: I can't believe how overconfident and arrogant I have been :D Edit: I checked my performance at the...

I can only answer about actual trades I took. Only they can show what I really "would have done". I don't have any trades this week, so I can't post anything.

I don't think we can call the markets "random". They are the product of human behavior, of supply and demand, and there are trends in human preferences and expectations for the future which it takes time to be exhausted and reversed. In the beginning they start because of some fundamental shift...

That's an exceptional record, brokershopping. It’s more than certain that you are doing something right. I think that as people have a natural tendency to fade the trend (pick tops and bottoms), may be its only natural to try to be smart and fade your own track record and exit at the "top"...