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Thanks for the complement. I don't expect that trading is easy, or the skills required to be successful are easily acquired, but I have learnt from my day job (analysing complex data sets and predicting outcomes) that only by understanding the underlying physical causes do you have any chance of...

What worries me about this approach is you are basically data mining the market using your brain rather than a computer. In the process of watching the market and trying to work out what is causing price movements you will develop and test tens of thousands of hypotheses (some consciously, but...

Thanks for all the replies so far. It would seem that I am on the right track or a least heading the right general direction. To answer the question about what level is statistically valid, a p value of less than 0.05 is normally considered significant in science and medicine (ie there is...

I have been dipping my toes into the trading water as a bit of a hobby and like most new people doing badly. I have so far been 100% correct on the ultimate direction of my trades, but totally off in the timing - I guess this is a fancy way of same as saying I have been 100% wrong :( Rather...