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Yeah obviously it's a new crop but there's no reason to expect the spot price will actually decline in 2017. I see the same irrational thing going on in gold futures -- 0.4% drop from Aug 2017 to Dec 2017 while every other month has contango.

So corn has this normal contango going on up until July 2017, then it gaps down 10% to Dec 2017, then resumes the normal amount of contango. Is there any rational explanation of that kink in the curve? I don't see any annual pattern in corn spot prices, or any jump down for Dec 2016. I'm...

Read The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham. Averaged 29% per year for the last 4 years.

I have literally every plausibly relevant permissions box checked... and it's talking about permissions not locate. fail to locate is a different error message...

I don't like arb between bitcoin exchanges because that usually just means it's harder to get your money out of one of the exchanges. Mt. Gox bitcoin was selling at a huge discount way back before they went bankrupt...

So I want to do a little risk free arbitrage by shorting GBTC and buying bitcoins because GBTC is selling at like a 30% premium to nav. Unfortunately IB says I need more permissions to short it, which is weird because I can short anything else without a problem.

One shitty money losing company buys another shitty money losing company to generate fake revenue growth. I'd say the deal has negative NPV but who knows how the market will react.

yeah, I've decided these are really shitty investments, and made a bit of free money shorting them, but they're not shitty enough to be worth the risk of shorting them. Can make more money per unit of risk in other things like ETF arbitrage.

Either it's worth 10x the price, or they cooked the books. Which do you think? Are all Chinese deep value stocks fraudulent?

lol, i work next door to snapchat and we make way more money than them with 1/10 as many employees. Snapchat is a joke. It should only take 10 engineers to run it, not 300.

SHLD is definitely going bankrupt in a year or two. Just look at their balance sheet. Moody's is smoking crack to rate it as high as Caa1, considering Atwood Oceanics has the same rating and an extremely strong balance sheet. Also the people buying Caa1 rated SHLD bonds at only 10% YTM are...

It looks like this is what I wanted: http://www.historicaloptiondata.com/node/24

I want like 10 years history of all the EOD prices on all the strikes on all the expiration dates on all the stocks... quandl doesn't seem to have it... who does?

As warren buffett said, "I prefer a lumpy 15% to a smooth 12%". Sharpe ratio is meaningless unless you have a short term need to liquidate.

Modern portfolio management and the whole idea of being able to quantify risk-adjusted returns is bullshit. Volatility is not risk. Volatility is opportunity to buy things for less than they're worth.

I would also seriously consider just sitting around with cash until the sh*t hits the fan later this year...

The target is based on dollar amount but the trade increment should be 200 shares because that's the most shares you can trade for the $1 minimum commission.

That was just shorthand for saying you can't buy as many of them, so your max gain is lower when you buy ATM options. If you just think the underlying will just beat the market a little bit, then it's better to buy the ATM or ITM call. If you have a strong view that the underlying is going to...

So basically I want to simultaneously short two things and keep the dollar value of each of those two shorts as close as possible to $50k because they hedge each other. But I also want to minimize trading fees so I want it to only trade when the difference from the target exceeds 200 shares...

ATM options are really expensive, so you never make 20x with ATM options.