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  1. J

    I Know Why The Caged Bird Sings

    Let's say you want to manufacture a new widget. If you compare the 1950s to now, which decade will you spend far more money and time fighting OSHA, the EPA, EEOC and bogus harassment/discrimination charges, and dozens of other agencies battling your quest for success and profitability?
  2. J

    Marc Rich (1935-2013) Dead

    Sounds like he learned some things from the U.S. gov't.
  3. J

    Why are equities and bonds declining simultaneously?

    All of that "better-than-expected news" is from prior months. This was before interest (read: mortgage) rates took a severe hike. Every time Bernanke opens his pie hole and even mildly suggests "tapering," the markets will hate it. That's the trap he's in. Feeling good about housing numbers...
  4. J

    A healthy pull back or worse ??????

    The bond issue is what makes this look scary. In all the other recent stock market corrections, bonds rallied. Now we're seeing bonds (and practically all other assets) plummet while interest rates spike. The proverbial rock and hard place appear to be tightening in on the Fed.
  5. J

    Bernanke press conference yesterday

    1980 or 1990 would be just as arbitrary as 2000. In either case, you're starting in the best decades that the stock market has ever seen. So that just fits your own bias. As for your QE statement, what kind of recovery has it allowed? The mere thought that QE may be tapered off is causing...
  6. J

    Bernanke press conference yesterday

    What a bunch of garbage. The S&P is about 5% higher now than it was in March 2000. That was over 13 freakin' years ago! Recent years of ZIRP, QE, etc. have done nothing but keep the stock market flat...and make it impossible to earn a decent return in low-risk investments.
  7. J

    The bottom

    Careful here. A few months ago the pattern was 1) Open with a loss 2) Start rallying mid-day 3) Finish flat or with a gain no matter how terrible news or world events are Now it seems to be 1) Open with a loss 2) Start a brief, head-fake rally mid-day 3) Go back to a loss and close...
  8. J

    John Henry closes shop

    If he's retained enough wealth, maybe she'll stay with him. Otherwise, hypergamy will run its course.
  9. J

    The bottom

    Who? A clueless buy-n-hold-n-pray financial planner? You post here over 5,000 times, presumably folow the markets closely, and let someone manage your money? For shame. Anyhow, let's see the next round of bottom pickers. This is fun(ny). Sooner or later they'll be right. Those who...
  10. J

    2007 Redux?

    Regardless of the economic/fundamental differences, I maintain that this is technically very similar to 2007. If I had the time, I'd post a couple of charts. We peaked a bit earlier this year (mid-September), but the eery November breakdown (not common, especially after electing an incumbent)...
  11. J

    Tom Demark Sequential Indicator

    Right. These guys experiment with all kinds of ideas. That's why the key word in your sentence above is "previous." Robert Prechter, who's been a secular bear since '89, is a much bigger influence on PTJ than Demark ever was. Are we going to start a thread about his EW calls next? They've...
  12. J

    2007 Redux?

    Valid point, but when did the Nikkei stop being overleveraged? 1991? And it's been in a slow-motion crash since then. I know there are differences between the US and Japan and I'm not predicting a 20+ year bear market. But lack of leverage alone won't stop a market from falling.
  13. J

    2007 Redux?

    Does this breakdown in the stock market remind anyone of 2007? November is historically a good month for stocks. However, in '07 and this year stocks peaked early (Sept) and crashed when they normally rally. Not a good sign...
  14. J

    Post Election Impact on US Equities

    It means the market had a reality check (it's occasionally rational, after all). Then the prospects of QEinfinite took back over the sentiment. Of course, the power of QE is ultimately limited and fleeting, but it may keep things going for awhile.
  15. J

    Post Election Impact on US Equities

    The official story of today's drop is that investors are pricing in the fiscal cliff and facing up to the reality of how little "change" we've had. I was expecting all of this to be priced in around August--that's the way markets usually handle events that are likely to happen. This is...
  16. J

    Election results: Nothing will change

    Like lots of golf? Along with that, expect more mingling with celebrities and a few more freebies/entitlements to appease his "I deserve health care/welfare/housing/cell phones/etc. whether I work or not" voting bloc.
  17. J

    Ryan Jones Book The Trading Game

    He's still around. He has (or had) some expensive software that's supposed to make it easy to design and test trading systems. His latest is some weekly covered call service. I opted out of his emails long ago, but still see his ads from other trading services.
  18. J

    MF Global and the Fed

    Good article. Of course, it doesn't excuse Corzine or the current administration's hands-off approach to the whole ordeal. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/mf-global-collapse-fed-role-205747342.html
  19. J

    Reminder: Halloween indicator

    2007 was one of the few exceptions in the last few decades. 1994 was another, but it was only a mild decline. You can ignore it, short against it, or whatever you want, but it's one of the most powerful and reliable seasonal tendencies. A wise trader would at least acknowledge it.
  20. J

    Tom Demark Sequential Indicator

    Heh, 10+ years of profitable trading (or so he claims) and nothing but a screen shot? You realize that any indicator (MACD, RSI, sun spots, rabbit reproduction patterns) can appear to "call" a top/bottom or great entry point...right? Just look at any chart and you'll eventually see some...
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