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That's one way to look at it, but what if a particular bank goes bankrupt and ALL stocks go down. Does this mean NO ONE is doing their job?;)

I agree. Companies also borrow money at lower rates (Fed induced low rates) and do share buybacks. So yes, they go into more debt to do this. The thing is, there's a lot more "crock" than just share buybacks in the corporate world.:rolleyes:

Lower returns from the other CTA's...that sounds unlikely. Maybe your out performance is due to experience/intuition or unique approach to "trend following"?

Buy1Sell2...not trying to be a smart ass, but haven't you said trend following is "simple"? Kind of like your example above.:D

It helps to have a major bubble in commodities for trend following to be so effective. Inflation was over double digits back then and has basically retreated since then...disinflation. Disinflation has led to a financial paper bubble (stocks/treasury bonds) and therefore led to a deflation of...

He's done this before? Please tell us more.:confused:

Gonna miss the PADDY and his humor.

Thanks for responding. I should've stated my question better. Since rates aren't normalized as they should be, what problems will develop from this? Do you see any specific crisis looming?

S2007S...since you agree that rates SHOULD be much higher, can you give us your opinion on what NEGATIVE EFFECT this will cause for the U.S. economy? Inflation, deflation, or currency collapse, etc.

I remember owning a good chunk of commodities at the 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 peaks and having certain conversations with my wife about gas prices. She would complain about gas prices continually going up and I would have to explain how prices of gas and everything else going up was effecting our...

s0mmi...I didn't read the entire contents of your original thread, but why were you away for 3 years? I trade the 30yr. outright and I'm assuming you're trading bond spreads still? Obviously, you believe spreads trend better if that's the case. Am I right?

Good stuff. FYI I love that word "Gobshite"...just sounds bad!

:D:p

What is this thread about?:confused:

Never mind.

Never mind.

Garachen...how have you been? Do you still have a trading staff? Do you still use DOM tactics or have things changed in the markets too much?

Traderflow...what tool do you use for reading order flow?

Not trading SMALL until I learned this game...lost over 140k before I got my shit together. I was a successful investor first and thought I would be an exception to the "learning curve" in trading. WAS I WRONG!:banghead:

Good post. When I said "TEXTBOOK stuff", I meant most everyone is competing with conventional wisdom tactics...S/R...trend following...etc.