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I'm curious what happens when 20% of the mortgagers default on their homes. Is the government going to bail out the banks like it did the Savings and Loans? That's going to tic me off if I end up paying for these overzealous creditors 10 years down the road.

That's great, but how well did Fib predict the 1929 crash? also, I've heard Del Mar is great too (but I've never been).

Yea, I think that's just CNBC crap. The 29 crash didn't just end one day either. It just slowly leveled off around Sept of 32. Honestly I don't know an example of "capitulation".

Doing a quick little check of p/e ratios I think the Dow is trading around 21 (at the close of market today); however IP, EK and T are all running losses, so I couldn't figure those p/e's into the calculation. Certainly a true p/e of the dow is probably around 25.

I agree. It took the market 13 years to settle from the 1968 bubble. However, in the 1929 crash the Dow lost nearly 80% of its value in just 3 years. I still think its crazy, but it becomes more believable every time I think about it.

Yea, I hear ya, but the Dow has been averaging about a 100 point loss a day for the month of July. Another two and a half months of that and we're there. I think the Dow is selling at about 25 times earnings right now and when the market turned in 1982 the Dow was at about 8 times...

I do a lot of work with these Chicago guys who are very knowledgeable and have a long history of successful trading. Anyway, they me told this morning that the DOW would go to 2600. That's right 2-6-0-0. I know, it's insane, but these guys believe it’s as certain as the sun will rise...

It’s a line from "The Graduate".

I see this as very possible outcome, but my own view is a 20% decline and then flat for the next decade. At any rate we both believe appreciation will be little to negative for quite a while.

Careful with shorting reits. REITS don't really correlate with the residential real estate market. To my knowledge REITS are generally in commercial property which has already fallen off a cliff. my 2 cents

SC is on MB

Actually Santa Cruz is on Monterey Bay. Half Moon Bay is on Half Moon Bay.

This I agree with. It is a cycle. The last time we had corruption on this level the US went through the most drastic changes in business history (although there have been a few minor confidence crisis since then). More Accounting theory and standards were developed from 1933 to 1945 than...

I completely disagree, if companies were "totally transparent" then there would be way too much information for a person or a group of people to digest. Total transparency would mean that investors would not only know where all the money is and where it's going, but would also know all the...

Good Thread.

Somehow it recovered, and I actually made a little money (maybe if I was a better trader I would have doubled down at the lower price, but that's not my style). Thanks for the advice.

Yea, if you live in Thailand you might expect this kind of crap, but this is the USA. The strong accounting and reporting requirements we have, are what is supposed to make our markets the best in the world. The SEC needs to scare the living crap out of anyone remotely involved in these...

Hmmm, I guess I'm not really gambling. I use a proven system that has worked fairly consistency for several years. But I am gambling because I never know if that system will continue to work in the future.

Thanks Chas, Fortunately pretty close to even this morning with the bounce back. I just don't understand why news that's 3 months old can throw my bio stocks down 7% - 10% when the indices are only down 2%. Oh well, what should you expect when you're gambling.

True, however if the accounting scandals don't stop, we could end up with a similar market due to total lack of confidence (I don't see this happening, but it is possible).