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The above experience of sliding to the side in my trading because of a conceptual error reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from Redneck: "See.., that’s just it.., and what many don’t get – this business isn't like any other.., where one can simply work harder and eventually things...

When I wrote out my trading plan with AMT I thought of it as finding the predictable boundaries, the extremes, and then mechanically surfing my way into the 'right side of the market' via SLA. However, just thinking that way I've slid back -- and am not applying SLA properly, instead the...

All the one's who had problems with alcohol and drugs. Grant is just one example.

Thanks Db for pointing out I was making things more complicated than necessary, and I apologize to Niko for doing so. Likely has something to do with having trading in other ways and still unloading some of that. What I want from this public journal is input from those I respect who might...

Thanks Db, I didn't see your post until after I posted my plan... we had rain and thunder (of all things) so made the post and turned the computer off without cking.

Observations for the week. Reviewing what my plan is: When I sit down to trade go thru the daily, 60 min, 5 min time intervals and put boxes around ranges, channels around trends. Add the 50% of a fib retrace to any significant leg. Project out the extremes of the boxes and channels, and note...

'random' might not be the right word. 'unpredictable' is better. Or you might come up with the "random walk theory" which is impractical! That diagram is a thought experiment based on several "if's". I may not want to hang my hat on them. but When I doodled it out and saw it... that's what...

Ok... I will edit this in a min, but here is the diagram. What I'm saying is that if the market is unpredictable randomness moving in between predictable boundaries... I don't want to spend my trading life in the random part thinking that probabilities will apply. Or that any model will apply...

I think you are saying exactly what I'm saying not to do. Or it may be the same thing but with a different POV. Let me think on this a bit we may not be talking about the same thing. Let me draw a diagram... Give me a min.

What is the market? One person described it as random movement within predictable boundaries. If this is true... and you are trading the random part, you might have random wins and losses. You might attribute those to whatever indicator or concept of trading or mathematical formula you are...

In chat we mentioned a difference between ‘trading probabilities’ and statistical probabilities. When I started trading I imagined that there were patterns or indicators or events in trading that were like flipping a coin. There was a certain statistical probability that went with it. If...

It sounds like you are on your way Boru. It is a work in progress for sure, and I've never worked so hard or at something so hard... guess we all hope the easy times will come out of the hard times. I think we focus on one part at a time, but it has moving parts that all have to work...

Pre-open prep notes: We are at the top of a channel starting 2 days ago. Possible long up to the long term (LT) channel top, but would have to go thru all the LT channel mean. We may DT here, and reverse. Shorts have places of interest at the bottom of the longer term trend channel, which...

Oh thanks Boru. that helps, I had a frustrating day as my 'foresight' prep is getting there, but my internet connection was messed up for a couple of hours around the open. So I worked on my reading and homework. The material is not so much overwhelming, but I have stuffed in so much in...

But it doesn't hurt to look over someone's shoulder every now and then and see what they are doing!

When you are learning something new Or trying to break a bad habit (which is just learning something new with a twist) Go back to school. Process the material in different ways. Do a timeline a drawing make cliff notes write about it with stream of consciousness and see what pops up...

Thanks Boru

One of my favorite authors relates her husband asking her why she could describe in a few sentences the essence of most any book except the ones she was writing? She said that when she became able to (in normal size writing) put the essence of her work-in-progress on a 3 x 5 card, her...

Thursday I had a big enough win day that I often give it all back shortly thereafter. I usually associate giving it back with overconfidence, which I have seen as a pattern in the past but seemed unable to change it. At some level I'd do a "after all the work I've put in now I've finally got...

I'm working on my reading and understanding. Had my most profitable day of the year so far via trading an econ report. I didn't think about it until talking to Niko, but I was using SLA. The lines were in my head as with an econ report things move so fast. The comments in the chat...