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I just need to dispel the myth contained in that first statement, about rates being at historical lows. This is false. See attached. Fed Funds is more or less at its normal level during its history. It has spent more time being lower or equal to the current rate than higher; the only period...

It could always close unchanged, you know. That might even be a good prediction. You got one bunch looking for lower, mostly lots lower, another bunch thinking big time bounce. So, why not just close flat or as close to it as possible, if you're Mr. Market and you want to frustrate the lot of 'em?

I just have to respond to this one. Yes, VIX is a fear index. I think most people know that. The correct response to my post, quite obviously, was to fade it. Hope you did. (Yes, I lack vanity. I'm too old to care about stroking my ego on a message board, and therefore don't care about being...

No, not joking. The long-term potential growth rate of the US economy is around 4 to 4.5%: 2.5 to 3 for productivity, 1 - 1.5 for labor market growth. If you raise rates above 4.5, it means you think inflation is a problem. I know everyone here thinks it is. Or at least it seems that way...

Full disclosure: I thought they were stupid to go over 4.25, and then just crazy to go over 4.5 back when they were raising. All this did was make it easy for the Chinese to keep the yuan undervalued, without having any effect on the credit situation here in the US, since long rates never did...

Vix hasn't made a new high for the fourth day in a row, which all by itself is news. It was beginning to look like it was going to make a new high every trading day this year. (Yes, I'm exaggerating.) I'm beginning to smell a short squeeze. Of course, once that's done, we go back to the...

Spectre2007: Massive deflation, which is what we had a brush with in 2000, would initially be good for the dollar, very good for Treasuries, bad for gold, and of course disastrous for stocks. Later, it would be good for gold, and later still, once the Fed reflates bigtime, good for stocks. Guys...

stock trad3r, I have watched you make post after post belittling this stuff. I went flat on my spec acct on the 20th, when all kinds of momo stocks cracked on the GOOG earnings news. That was a sign that worse things were coming, and this liquidity crisis is for real. As I write this, gold is...

...and a meltup in Treasuries, which would help me, anyway, keep my losses in my 401k to a minimum.

As a baby boomer, yep. It's not like we have a lot of time left to accrue money, after all. I went to a USG bond fund for my 2nd largest holding about six months ago, reduced the Rus2k fund to a bare minimum, and right now I'm real glad I did.

Hmph. This reminds me of 1990 or so, when the NY banks were on the ropes. Manufacturers' Hanover, an old NY bank, long since folded into one of the surviving ones, I think Chase, was paying a dividend that, with the dive in its stock, was worth 40%. Ed Hart of the old FNN (I still miss that...

If you're account blew up, yeah. Kind of like what they say about being unemployed: it's a recession when your neighbor loses his job, and a depression when you lose yours.

Change the title? Nah, that title's a freakin' gem. Masterpiece, even.

Kitco has 659.9 as today's low. Ino.com has 654.3.

Mirror image was a very sharp upmove in the dollar. If this holds, then this move in gold is over for now. Crucial battle at 80 on the NYBOT's dollar index, just like those of us who have watched this dollar bear/gold bull unfold for years have thought. If 80 decisively falls on the USD, well...

Just a post to say thanks. I don't understand a lot of this, but I've bookmarked this thread and will be rereading it at my leisure.

The markets are smelling blood, I think. Gold is creeping up as I write this, after Bear reported that its funds went belly up and INTC published a disappointing earnings report. That report is causing the Nikkei to drop as well, on selling of tech shares over there. Meantime, and most...

Well, I've developed a daily system for swing trading and a longer-term system for position trading based on weekly data. Both use whether the RSI is above or below 50 as one of their inputs. Where did I get that idea? From The Encylopedia of Technical Market Indicators, which concluded as a...

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

Joachim Fels, in an article for Morgan Stanley in 2003 or 2004 (it was titled "The Euro: Coming of Age or Coming Apart?". Can't find it online at Morgan Stanley anymore), outlined the mechanisms for breaking up the euro. He said it would be easier than a lot of people would think, since actual...