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The mechanics and market structure. Again, CFA is very basic and is probably comparable to taking undergraduate courses in economics, statistics, and corporate finance. So it's not rocket science and is not going to lead you to a real strategy -- but it does help build the background. I've...

Sounds like you already had a strong background in finance. And, in my understanding, the efficient market hypothesis is just a useful framework to start studying anomalies. If you assume information should reflect in prices, then you can look for examples where that's not the case and can...

I'd be short KRE here. I made a decent return buying into distressed stocks (Bot on Mon, Sold on Tues), but think there's room to fall as @gwb-trading mentioned. This distress in the financial system is concurrent to tightening lending standards (SLOOS) which points to an upcoming decline in...

On certain tools like Bloomberg or Refinitiv eikon, they'll typically have an indicator signifying how important an indicator is. However, while that's helpful from a basic filter (there are hundreds of thousands of indicators and you want to just see the top x%) it's not super helpful from a...

If you look at top banks and hedge funds within these asset classes, it generally falls along these lines (geographically): London is probably the best for macro traders (rates, fx, macro relative value, etc.). Hong Kong and Singapore are the best for EM FX and EM Rates, probably because the...

I took level 1. It's useful for those who don't have a background in finance, because it'll get you caught up to speed on 75% of the foundational stuff you should know.

start by reading ernie chan

I'd argue the move into crypto, like the move into gold, is based upon the view that the Fed will begin easing. It's front running liquidity. Whether or not you get a follow through is based upon cryptos long-term viability. Sovereign paper is based by the sovereign and its population. Crypto...

Why not start with an earnings waterfall and go from there?

Are you stupid? On your list you had signature bank in green, which was one of the banks that failed last week. Please gtfo with this nonsense. it’s fair to provide unique insight and analysis but saying you were right when in fact you were wrong is just idiotic.

Really appreciate the follow up! Would you fit in Kalman filtering on your arima or do you prefer to analyze non-smoothed/filtered timeseries? Very helpful, thank you for that. I agree that decomposing any sort of model or price is the most useful first step. I bring up BEER (or really any...

Wouldn’t he want to convert raw prices into returns first? Also, wondering what you think about arima on returns within a BEER constrained channel.

Arima garch not a good fit for raw fx data lol. use garch to estimate covariance variance matrix but the real drivers of fx (the channel range) are time varying real rate differentials, bop imbalances, and relative economic activity.

fair lol.

the smartest thing i've seen you post!

Just want to clarify — I don’t think you, or most retail traders, are lying when you say that you think technicals or price action is useful. I believe you are misinformed. As for as traders who claim to make money from TA/PA consistently as their main trading strategy — yes, I believe that...

I haven’t read much about that study, but I’m not surprised. Most mutual fund managers (which the study was done on iirc) are closet indexers. Don’t look at traditional mutual fund managers. Look at what the top performing hedge funds are doing. Citadel, P72, MLP, Baly, etc. The game in this...

Yes everyone is a genius in hindsight. :rolleyes: TA is great at showing you what you want to see. I’d love to see an actual evidence of performance instead of hypotheticals. Oh yeah, there isn’t any.

And look, I get that you and your friends make fun of fundamentals. For what it’s worth I think retail traders who only use fundamentals are as bad as retail traders who only use technicals. Both are dumb because both haven’t done the homework to see that there’s no source of excess return in...

Dunno if you understood the chart that I posted showed that the stock peaked AFTER it missed earnings and guided lower. Also, the analysts that dug into the numbers after their earnings in Jan called them out. Analysts covering the stock also noted that its MTM portfolio was literally wiping...