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I will probably exit this spread next week. It rallied nicely at first and now it is back to historical lows ( and my entry price ). Are you still in, Alex?

I don't know about Norway's taxes, but I assume trading was his first source of income, so just like everywhere else in Europe( UK, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland...), he must be paying income tax( + social security...) on his trading gains instead of capital gains tax. Either that or he...

And possibly predatory trading from the other few institutions involved, just like in the final days of LTCM. That's one of the risk of trading in a market with few participants. Once you are in trouble and the other participants know about it( which may be your counterparties if it trades like...

I don't find anything tempting both on the calendar spreads and robusta/arabica spread.

Out half @ 2.850. Nice trade so far.

"Futures are consolidating today after yesterday's short covering rally as a result of stronger-than-anticipated power burns," said Robert DiDona at Energy Ventures Analysis. "The aftermath of Florence was expected to have a negative impact on power burns. However, higher electric demand...

Short HO G/H/J butterfly @ -0.0035. - Little kink on the deseasonalized curve - "Big" volume at the top on 09-14. - Seasonals

Out @ 0.008. Small loser. We are too close to expiry now.

Interesting story https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-trading-bp/bp-vitol-go-head-to-head-in-west-african-crude-trading-idUSKCN1LU22W

I have an excel spreadsheet. But I think even on CME website there is a full carry calculator somewhere.

Full financial carry is the cost of getting the commodity delivered at the first expiry, stored and redelivered at the further expiry. If the spread goes over full carry, physical players can make a risk free profit by storing the goods, so it rarely happens. You can make a reasonable assumption...

The max carry assuming libor + 2 basis points would be around 16. Assuming LIBOR rate we are touching it.

I closed this trade today with a 2 ticks profit @ -13.5. Fundaman had calculated we were close to full carry and sent me a friendly warning. :) Not enough potential/ too much risk to stay in.

Short Jun/ Long Jul?

Long HE V/Z @ -3.3 during the settlement period. - Historically low. - Engulfing daily candlestick pattern - Seasonals

Short ZS Nov/Jan @ -13. - Nov/Jan overvalued compared to Sep/Nov and Jan/Mar on a deseasonalized curve. - Bearish fundamentals. I guess I don't need to develop. - Reliable seasonal window

No, not really. I try not to enter too countertrend. I wait for a reversing pattern. Or I go with the trend. But no technical indicators. Volume. Outrights. COT. Curve. Thats' it.

Not cattle. I feel like Z/G and G/J are oversold but on livestock you never know...

Out @ 0.425. Good finish.

Went long @ -4.3. -Low level compared to the last 20 years but not further back. -Z/G seems to be bottoming.