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This guy from GS who seems a good economist has pretty much the same macro view I have argued for -Economy will probably surprise on the downside, V is unlikely -Fed will keep rates low for 2010 with no hikes as they wont raise with falling inflation, specially on the core CPI...

Some evidence that inflation tends to fall after recessions are over http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/1220/m1870370200014706003953.gif This probably makes somewhat likely we will see a negative print in the core CPI in this cycle

What seems to be an increasinly a total 'shoot fish in the barrel' trade is a bet on a jobless recovery From Rosenberg: "Yes, initial jobless claims did come down 26k (from yet another upwardly revised figure — the 23rd in a row) to 550k in the September 5th week. But claims are...

I agree with all of this. Since stocks and comm are more global and liquid you would except the arb to be faster(specially in cases of universal and storable goods such as oil). But if the US stock market is really being arb in PPP basis, you would expect the TIC inflows in the equity market to...

I have a hard time accepting this argument. A declining currency doesnt necessarily means the stock market will rise, why?Because things can get cheap in PPP basis, it happens routinely, those things are not arbed instantly Matter of fact the Brazilian currency is up something like 50% from...

Another divergence is on the commodity markets. Both the CRB and and the Rogers Indices are well off their short-term highs from May-June With the exception of oil, commodities have been showing tons of weakness, specially the agricultural ones(RJA bellow 200MA)

The Fed financed a dramatic increase in bank reserves, of which very little went to become M2(real money supply). So as usual Zero Hedge is exaggerating in their never ending crusade of bashing the government at every opportunity and claiming manipulations

Yes I do have doubts. There is no plans in the adm to do that, nor with the fed. If this is wrong, I will be happy to read the link where the government says they will bailout every BBB or lower company who defaults. Meanwhile expected defaults are in the 10-15% range, the yield on those things...

Funny you mention junk, the way they are priced right now the US government will have to backstop most bankrupt non-investment grade corporate firm to this thing to be a good value. Where in the stimulus package is that bailout?it doesnt have, tarp is not doing it(unless its a big bank) and the...

According to Meredith Whitney GS will underwrite every debt offering in the universe for the next 5 years. She thinks debt underwriting revenues are going to go up by 10x(at least thats implicit on her opinion). We will see whos right, I might very well be you

The degree of which treasuries are decoupling from equities is getting significant http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4Yn8o7cyFZ0 30y futures are up 1.62% against 0.90% for ES. Someone has to be wrong...

Rents are already going down, maybe not the BLS Owner Equivalent Rent(which is basically a survey of people who dont rent) But the guy on calculatedrisk seem bearish on rents due rising vacancies http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/bre-properties-rents-to-decline-well.html...

Even though the equity market is trying has been on viagra for a few weeks now, the interest rate markets has been far more bearish Both long-term yields and short-term rates have been trending down...

IMF study of inflation in developed economies after financial crisis http://tlrii.typepad.com/.a/6a00e5516841ac883301156ff4329a970c-popup This is from The Liscio Report

Rents are also likely to stay under pressure(due all the overbuilding during the bubble) and they are a huge component of the CPIs(more than food and transportation individually). The 'shelter' component of CPI(essentially rents and other housing costs) is up 0.9% yoy and the owner equivalent...

So this FOMC voter says, confirming my speculation, that the Fed will only raise fed rates with rising inflation http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/09/09/feds-evans-rate-hikes-some-time-down-the-road/ Probably only with sustainable inflation which might take 5-10 months of inflationary...

Interesting, just what kind of V recovery and 'end of the financial crisis' is this where the government needs to backstop the debt of banks? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahxfcz1.ZZTE

The reason a 20% correction could be conservative is because people seem to shift from euphoria to panic quite easily, we saw that in Mar to May There wont be a shortage of bearish points that people might look at to freak out about what earnings/defaults going forward will be. examples...

Junk bonds through the FINRA/Bloomberg High Yield U.S. Corporate Bond Index are yielding 11% on a 3y duration. If you look at bearish defaults forecasts they are higher than that yield and likely to remain high(and recoveries are said to be one of lowest in this cycle), the forecasts that...

I find it quite concerning this developed countries crackdown on offshore havens. I use them for some of my banking needs, I of course report all my bank accounts to the tax authorities in my country. The domestic banks I have wont make international wires without piles of paperwork and even...