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Watching with interest, but, haven't had a position in a long time here.

What if interest rates go down? I think that is one of the factors driving this market. Interest rates are going to be much lower in years to come which will keep purchases attractive, IMO.

You should also consider the additional rent you will need to pay over the two years that you wait to purchase the house at a 10% decline. If you are not renting but currently own a house, you should factor the 10% decline in the value of your own residence.

They will start to price in Fed easings. As for the Eurodollars the Fed is never at a standstill. They are either trying to price for a tightening Fed or an easing Fed. Just my observation after trading them for over 15 years.

I worked for Izzy Englander. Although his name is not as well known as the one's you referred, I would claim he is a legend in the business nonetheless. Certainly on par with David Shaw of D.E. Shaw. I learned a lot about discipline, frugality and basically being an outright money making...

I just cannot stomach this guy. I watched for 5 minutes and I'm about the puke. They just flashed to Paris Hilton so it saved me until I could turn the channel.

I still believe the EUR trades very poorly and it does remind me of the episode in Yen late '98. With that said, I'm not going to sleep without stops in place :). Have a good weekend, yourself...

Actually, you make a good point. I've learned to sleep odd hours. Ironically, I do most of my sleeping between 3 am and 10 am. I actually trade less frequently during that time while most other people are very active during those hours. I only watch the markets on nights that I have particular...

I'm stopping the longs around 1.2650 but waiting for a break of 1.2600 to make outright shorts in the EUR. Judgement day is upon us!! :)

I'm thinking the same, however, I just bought 1.2684-85 in the June Eur using a tight stop below. This may be one of my last attempts at long the EUR. Good risk/reward here I feel. I'll likely reverse to short EUR below 1.2600.

I went in with no position and am unbiased at the moment. I still have no position but will sell a downside break (to get short EUR) but not as willing to go long anymore. As for Yen, what I meant was really pertaining to the chart as an analog to current EUR. Meaning that we had a large trend...

I don't like the way EUR trades. Spending too much time here at trendline support in my opinion. I just looked at the $/Yen chart from Oct. 1998 prior to the 20+ figure down move in $/Yen and it looks scarily similar. It just doesn't smell right EUR, i might sell a big downside breakout if it...

If I keep bumping the thread to the top, I am bound to be right one day :). One of these tomorrow's my scenario is going to play out perfectly. :)

Thanks for keeping the thread alive while I caught some ZZZZZs. Looks like my EUR scenario won't play out as expected at least the downside stop-running at this point. I still like the bonds much higher today later on.

You make some reasonable points but I have counter-rebuttals for most. It's too late in NY (2:30 AM) and I have to go to sleep now so I don't sleep through the Fed tomorrow :). Good luck tomorrow..Neal.

What's interesting is that when I do get "stopped out" it generally was a good decision as the market continues to move further in that direction. I always kick myself and say that if I had just "stop-reversed", I'd have recouped much if not all of my previous loss. Still can't pull the trigger...

Very interesting. The next evolution of my trading is trying to profit after being wrong and switching gears. Until now, I've been able to cut losses, however, I've never been able to stop-reverse and profit from "Plan C".

That's quite a compliment and a lot of added pressure! :) Thanks, Neal.

Really? I thought LaSalle and I are the only ones. The street is bearish rates overall and has been for some time.

Good thoughts. I agree. Bullish case for bonds: 1. Very strong periods of growth over last ten years (5%+ GDP) yet inflation (as measured by gov't statistics) did not materialize inflation (remember 1993?). Is inflation going to materialize with the moderate growth we have now? 2...