Am I understanding this correctly? Who are the commercials, BTW?
Large specs = hedge fund = smart money
Small specs = retail losers = dumb money
Commercials = ??
If the large specs are increasingly long (or short), does it mean you should play on the same side?
SoCal is way too big. You can easily spend 2 hours commuting each way. Plus I don't like living under the constant threat of a bad earthquake, frequent power outage, wild fires, etc. My 2 cents...
Here's the setup:
Long Aug 25 TOL Put @ 1.85
Short Aug 22.5 TOL Put @ .55
Net debit 1.3, breakeven @ 23.7
The stock is currently at 25.3. The long put will expire worthless if the underlying doesn't go down. Should I bail or do nothing until closer to expiration to get more time...