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First of all, I have no skill to forecast the market's intraday movement. Therefore, I shall not attempt to do so. The market overall looks weak so far since opening. The Feb. contract jumped from Friday's close at $51.99 to a high of $53.05, and yet the March contract rose from $53.40 only...

No. Dr. Chen

I have analyzed and traded the energy market for many years for major institutions, and I continue to enjoy writing my blog on and trading the energy market. Dr. Chen

I see that there is little in-depth information on the crude oil market out there, so I have decided to provide my analysis and share it with those who are interested in the crude oil market. I invite my readers to leave their comments on Crude Oil Market Analysis either on this forum or at...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/19/07) Today’s market followed yesterday’s forecast that the market would begin to be range-bound despite having set a new low for each of the previous eight consecutive sessions, and the market had a sharp rebound. The market moved in one direction from...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/18/07) Today the market action followed yesterday’s Crude Oil Market Analysis’ forecast and became a pay day. Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/9/07) predicted that “once the market breaks $55.00 to touch $54.70, it will be a free fall towards...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/17/07) Mea culpa! The Crude Oil Market Analyses had called for “tak[ing] profit below $50.40 for three days from Jan. 10 to Jan. 12, but yesterday’s Crude Oil Market Analysis called for ‘tak[ing] profit at $50.20.” Today’s market low was $50.28. The...

Mark, Thank you very much for correcting the bad URL! It seems that the modern technology and the correct English grammar cannot coexist, and I have to choose the former over the latter. Upon your kind suggestion I have corrected the URL address. Dr. Chen

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/16/07) Today the market resumed its downward trend after staging a short-covering rally on Friday before the three-day weekend. Overnight the market tried to rally above Monday’s high of $53.55 on the expectation of an OPEC announcement to support the...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/12/07) Today the market action followed yesterday’s forecast. Yesterday’s forecast called for a technical bounce based mostly on the 14-day RSI being below 30. Overnight the market bounced from yesterday’s closing price of $51.88 to a high of $52.94 but...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/11/07) Today the market continued its downward trend after another rally failed in the wake of OPEC’s appeal to its members to comply with their respective production reduction quotas. The market reached another 19-month low overnight to hit $52.94 but...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/9/07 Updated) Today the market is in a state of confusion, as it struggles to decide whether to bottom out at $55.00 or to break away towards $49.75. Today the market finally broke the 2006 low of $54.85 and had a follow-through selling of almost $1.00 to a...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/9/07 a.m.) Now that the market has convincingly broken $55.00 support to a low of $53.88, sell short at market currently at $54.75 with a buy stop at $56.25, take profit at $50.50 or below. I will provide a full analsysis at the end of day. Dr. Chen

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/8/07) Today the market traded in a $2.62 range between $57.72 and $55.10 only to close 22 cents lower at $56.09 because the market, on an intra-day basis, has no directions. Other than the geopolitical tensions--today it was Belarus--and the OPEC jawboning...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/6/07) From January 6, 2007 I will begin to post my analysis of the crude oil futures market traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The posting will be made on an "as-necessary" basis. On Fri., Jan. 5 the crude oil futures market clearly ran into a strong...

Upon your kind suggestion, I will post all my future Crude Oil Market Analyses under this thread. For the convenience of my readers, I will consolidate all my previous Crude Oil Market Analyses under this thread as well in a chronological order, each as a separate reply to this thread...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/10/07) Today the market action followed the forecast of the Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/09/07) (the “Jan. 9 COMA”). The Jan. 9 COMA stated that “overall in tomorrow’s DOE report, unless the crude import falls to 9.5 million barrels per day or lower...

I know no other way of trading than doing what I did. I got short at $54.75 when the market rallied from $53.88 after breaking the 2006 low of $54.85 (see Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/9/07)). The old support of $54.85 became a new resistance, so it was reasonable to be short at $54.75...

Today the market is in a state of confusion, as it struggles to decide whether to bottom out at $55.00 or to break away towards $49.75. Today the market finally broke the 2006 low of $54.85 and had a follow-through selling of almost $1.00 to a low of $53.88. This $1.00 follow-through selling...

Now that the market has convincingly broken $55.00 support to a low of $53.88, sell short at market currently at $54.75 with a buy stop at $56.25, take profit at $50.50 or below. I will provide a full analysis at the end of day. Dr. Chen