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A few days ago there was a thread about "what was the most important thing for you to learn" or something like that. I said "Learning how to lose" and it has definitely made all the difference for me. I treat every trade like a scientific experiment with a right and a wrong answer. When I get...

By "immediately exploited", I was referring to the fact that there appear to be some anomalies which work with a time lag from the initial appearance of the anomaly trigger. If the market were really efficient, the appearance of the trigger itself would signal enough traders to pile in to...

Way back when in the thread, he admitted that my contention that in using "price drivers" vs. "TA", a trader is basically swapping one kind of uncertainty for another is true. One of the great puzzles of research into anomalies or market inefficiencies is the question "Why aren't they...

How is the guy a con artist? There are no free rides in the actual business world. If my goal is to get an additional $900K in buying power, is someone supposed to just hand it to me?

Unless your average loss is 20 times the size of your average win, at those win rates, you should already be a trillionaire, so why are you slumming here?

Any model is an abstraction of the full detail of what's modeled. The key is to find a model that represents the least detail with the most efficacy in assisting decision-making. Saying "Oh, that model doesn't contain 'x'" isn't really a valid criticism until you prove that 'x' matters. It's...

Right, those are huge capital outlays for systems and those costs need to be passed on to investors. No question about that. I will be the first to say I have a terrible "feel" for markets. I rely on my rules to keep me in or out of trades. Those rules are built around a logical principle...

Not only how much it costs to run them, but how much any asset can move in the amount of time they are holding and how much my fixed transaction costs amount to per share. There are papers out there doing the math...

How do you see them all? Do you have 20 interns reading Craigslist?

The hardest thing to know is when to be a contrarian and when not to be.

Nevermind "wanting to believe", how much will you pay to be shown? No free lunches in this game.

In recognition of the fact that trading is a zero-sum game and my gains have to come from someone else's losses, I say that everyone should listen to marketsurfer, despite my earlier objections. His ideas are well-thought out and completely make sense. If they don't at first, just keep...

Thank you for displaying an understanding of what the word "past" means. Apparently, that understanding is less widespread than I would have assumed.

I happen to track a lot of data for each of my trades and one of the datapoints is what was the high or low of the swing during which I entered. On average, it's ~9 points from where I enter, either above or below. By your theory of "pre-existing conditions" vs. "the past", my average trade...

There is one very big conceptual problem with charts. Since I've not seen it discussed here and I'm not sure how many people are aware of it, I'm not going to say what I think it is. What it is not is the idea that "charts represent the past". The people are pushing that as the main critique...

Again, you are just trading one type of uncertainty for another. The book, as it exists at t=0, is not what will actually be executed in the future, as bids and offers are pulled or added, so making a decision based on what the book looks like at t=0 STILL RELIES ON THE PAST BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO...

Can someone please explain, for the love of clucking Christ, what there is that isn't "in the past" the instant an instant passes? Throwing the phrase "in the past" around like it is some kind of relevant critique in and of itself is nonsense. It's a given. Some people know how to use the...

"Knowing what happened" helps you because markets do not instantaneously process information. Some traders process information which is material as immaterial in the immediate aftermath of the release of that information. Once those traders realize that the information is actually material, a...

I love these guys who talk as if there is a whole 'nother market out there or something and THAT'S where the real action is. It's really bizarre because I know that if I want to withdraw cash from my account and I sell shares to do so, I get the price that's in the "visible" market, not some...

I agree with this. I think there is an inevitable period of high uncertainty in the transition from backtesting/paper-trading to live trading. Parameters whose optimal value seemed set or unknown take on more solidity as the "unseen" data gets run through the algorithm. It is definitely best to...