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  1. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    5yr note got hammered with some huge selling starting at 26, and they are still going down to here at 23.5, about 30,000 sold, lots of big paper looking in there lately, must be 5% is huge in cash for fives.
  2. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Would still watch out, locals seem to be pushing for stops, and we haven't hit mortgage selling, if locals push to a level where they have to sell, it will get messy again. Japanese also off this week.
  3. M

    CME Counterparty Information

    I'm pretty sure Brumfield and buddies at GHCO have developed a personal application that pulls counterparty info from trades and they are in the process of getting the CBOT to allow them to do this legally. Don't quote me on this, but have heard it from a few sources.
  4. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Today was absolutely dead in bond land, no one really did anything, just a lot of noise within our range, the flattening on the open was interesting, with the bond up about 8 ticks and the ten year up 1 tick or so, and was short-lived. The mortgage guys rolled some calls very late in the day...
  5. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    I am down on the floor and am a big fan of the electronic options. If you are a retail trader the screen is probably the best place for you, as the markets are just as liquid on the screen as they are in the pit, because virtually the same traders make the markets on both. If you are trading...
  6. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    I hope Bernanke continues being a tool, at least the markets are more exciting than with good, old Easy Al, no one falling asleep anymore at the semi-annual testimony before Congress.
  7. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    I believe Bernanke made a comment around 2:30pm that the market misinterpreted his readying for a pause last week. Watch out, Lehman putting out high ball Fed Fund prints again their Economist out on the wires today saying 5.50% in Fed Funds and the exact same thing, that "market...
  8. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Dealers and decent local pushing from what I am seeing, this is on light volume though at about 600,000 only in the 10yr.
  9. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Yes, the NOB spread has been screwy this whole week, on all of these up moves the 30yr just continues to be a dog and doesn't want to participate as much as the belly of the curve (5yr and 10yr).
  10. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    The late bid on Friday can be explained by locals front-running the month-end extension buying (even though not large, it did show up in good size in futures). The big desks like Bear, Lehman, and Goldman always throw the MOC (market-on-close) orders in the pit for month end, and that makes it...
  11. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    JohnL, Those Sep 100 30yr puts are actually related to a curve play, buying the Sep 100 30yr puts versus selling the Sep 102 puts in the 10yr (1:1 ratio). CSFB did 10,000 of them yesterday paying 1 tick for the 30yr puts, and did it again today at least 5,000 times paying 2 ticks for the...
  12. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    JohnL, Yep, the JPM 5yr futures/3yr bundle stuff was most likely auction related. The 5yr futures started trading size around 1pm central today again, about 20,000 from 27.5 up to 29.5 (same time yesterday). Heard the 3yr bundle started trading again around the same time over in the back...
  13. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    And today?
  14. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    JohnL, Your quesiton on the Merrill MOVE index. I haven't looked at it since it was at its record lows in February but would imagine it hasn't caught a huge bid since then. The huge vol sellers, basically Goldman in the 10yr, have been quiet for about three weeks or so. Maybe this is...
  15. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Looked at time and sales after the close it was about 50,000 from 104-09.5 to 104-06.5 when I had left at 2:30 central. I would imagine this has to be related to the 7,000 3yr bundle in euros, but who knows. Either way, whoever bought the 5yr notes was not laying them off in any other futures...
  16. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    I am not sure what these 5yrs are against, because nothing else is trading size comparable to this, not even in cash, unless they will do the other leg later in week. They are still going, up to 42,500 at this point, same levels.
  17. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    JP Morgan has sold 35,000 5yr notes from 08 down to 06.5 all on the screen and also hearing they sold 7,000 3yr bundles in Eurodollars. Holy shit!!!!!
  18. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    EDF Man is actually Man Financial, huge brokerage house with operations in London, New York City, Chicago, all over the place. It could be any number of $1 billion plus hedge funds out there or even a bank trader, not really sure who their biggest customers are. They like to use the screen for...
  19. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    That big Japanese account is beginning to accumulate July 103 puts in the 10yr options. They have been quiet the last week or so and are out of most of their May options (expiring tomorrow) and the June as well. This will be interesting to see if they slowly or quickly build a position in...
  20. M

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Risk arb, Sorry, meant a play on cheap implied vol. I don't know the pure technicals behind Hughes options plays, as I look at things more from a customer standpoint than local standpoint in the options. All I know is that he trades absolutely everything and is f-ing nuts.
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