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"The answer, when found, will be simple." - attributed to IBM when I saw it. True, but not true. You can't teach someone to hold when every fiber says they should exit, to not average up or down on an extreme move that goes against them (a temptation I wind up fighting at least once every...

Note that NYX broke out yesterday on good volume. Today, the markets went nuts. This doesn't look like the script for a bear.

No top in sight. We'll enter bubble territory again after 1640 or so, and I may start pulling back after that. But the most likely scenario is continued up next week, 'cause it's an options expiration week, and then sideways until Sept 'cause everyone will either be at the beach or unconscious...

What has happened, basically, is that companies have opted for lower productivity and more hands - overseas hands - rather than higher productivity and fewer hands, but in the US. This lowers wages, which lowers the number of people wanting to get into comp sci or related fields. After all, if...

$100 won't be enough for the below, but this is what I'm doing to protect myself from currency risk with a portion of my money: 1 - 2 parts gold or gold stocks, which will over the long term at least match USD inflation. 2 - 1 part <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DBV"...

My rule of thumb is that the gold price follows gold stocks by about six months or so. Given how impatient everyone is, maybe waiting only three months might be prudent, if this week's breakout in gold stocks proves to be real. So, right now I'm heavily long gold stocks, but not looking to...

If you're looking to make predictions like this, you've gotta look longer term. On a weekly basis, the S&P is above its 10 week, 30 week, and 52 week MA's. The last few weeks have seen a bit of consolidation, but that's it. Based purely on a linear regression it could go to 1640 before...

So, like, what rhymes with orange?

I must be too, because if the bank is making 6% on its loaned out money and inflation is at 3%, then more than likely the 10 year will be sitting at somewhere around 5.5% or so, and the 2 year will be maybe at 5. So they can borrow short, lend long, pocket the diff. Especially if they can get...

I could go on on this subject forever, as I started out in sector mutual funds ages ago, and my second largest account still does nothing but make sector bets. I have a model with a trading time horizon measured in years for this which breaks things down into five phases for either a bull or a...

No, the amount you owe decreases with each payment, which includes a little bit of principal. In the first year, this is very low, but it increases each year. The bank gets its interest up front, and I believe the majority of the interest on a 30 year mortgage is actually paid in the first 10...

You could run a regression from the start of the bull in 1981 too. Guess what? Shows almost the same thing. The trend in yields is still in place, and it's in place almost regardless of the timeframe you use, excepting the most recent. The current runup is hardly the first to occur during that...

I voted for under 5 rather than under 4.5 by year end, but only because there's only half a year to go. In actuality, a linear regression drawn on the log of the yield of the 10 year since 1999 lands you at 4.14%, which is well under 4.5, of course. I believe we'll land at that mean, but in...

I think we're perfectly set up for a washout on Monday and Tuesday. To the CDO scare we now get to add the terror scare, which may be hyped going into the 4th. Meantime, background conditions in the market are starting to get much friendlier: 1 - The 10-year had a nice rally on Friday, and...

Well, <b>daddyeaux</b>, it may or may not be worse than '29, but all I was saying is the Fed isn't so stupid that it would raise rates into the teeth of a liquidity crisis, like it did in '29. That lesson's been learned. A lot of people on this board don't seem to like that lesson, but...

Yep.

Raise rates into a possible liquidity crisis??? 1929 is not going to happen again. Forget it.

Eh, usual story. It took multiple crises to get Greenspan to lower, and it looks like Bernanke is the same sort of Fed head. Like Greenspan, he will be forced to the wall and made to lower. It's only a question of when - and of what it will be that forces him down.

I don't see how the Fed doesn't reword towards a stance more geared towards relieving the economy of the current stress rather than fighting inflation tomorrow. How the market takes it is another story. I have no idea on that. I do know that right now I'm net long, on the one hand, but on the...

I posted on some other thread that I was going to play today for a bounce, and that's working out so far. Back to shorting tomorrow, unless it really flies this afternoon.