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...and I see we're now up to 68%. More than two-thirds. Zany. Am I allowed to be contrarian now?

Answering my own question: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1560+8704,00.html

Maybe people just don't realize how rare the event they're voting for is. There have been mini-crashes since the one in '87, the last being just this past Wednesday. But big ones like '29 or '87 don't just come along every day. Or maybe they think 3 or 4% down in one day is a crash? Actually...

Hmm. I like this. It looks just like a one-day chart of the action on Friday: after the first 15 minutes, down, and then around 11 AM a slow climb back up, ending above 1445. So, a bunch of people took advantage of the morning pop to sell, and a bunch of other people, unafraid of the weekend...

Isn't it a wee bit tougher than that? Granted, 35 is a bit extreme, but in the late 90's and early '00s we had years, almost, of the VIX being over 20, and we just finished a long period when it was under 20 and even months when it couldn't manage to make 15. So, defining that mean it reverts to...

Pun much? And, good point. :)

I've been an active retail investor since 1985. The only time I pulled out was between 1999 and 2000, and when I started buying again in 2000, it was all gold and gold stocks, until 2003, when I started getting back into everything else. That was the only true bear market, so far. Everything...

Just saw the results. Crazy. I must be living in a different world. I voted no crash, of course. Unless Bernanke or Trichet does something terminally stupid. Trichet is more likely to, but one hopes he learns something from how Bernanke's been handling this so far.

The only district bank with real power is New York. What Bernanke and New York says goes. St Louis doesn't figure in anyone's idea of a world financial center. No one gives a flying f*ck what Poole does.

Only way that happens is if you think the FDIC is going to fail. Which it most certainly isn't. They aren't even involved yet. Get a grip.

No, it's not a colossal subsidy. It's the Fed doing its job: acting as the backstop reserve for the nation's banks. An infusion of reserves in a crisis situation isn't going to cause inflation. All it does is prevent some bank somewhere that might have needed it from going under and needing to...

That release is for the week ended Aug 15. Which means we don't know what happened yesterday or today. Someone might have needed a few armored trucks of cash. We'll find out this time next week.

Is there a place for historical data on the underlying futures price for the options? The CBOE seems to only put out the historical data by expiration month, and it would be a pain to reconstruct the historical underlying from that.

I wouldn't be so anxious to short quite yet. VIX barely moved down today. I'm not sure if that's an artifact of the OE (anyone know?) but if not, it seems to indicate a bit of skepticism about this rally among the majority, and that means the fuel is nowhere near spent.

Why does it all have to be the leak? I bought LEH calls on Wed morning purely based on the selloff being overdone. At some point, all the bad news is priced in. That's what the market does. I had to bite my nails hard for about an hour on Thursday, but after that it was party time. I had...

Post-Murdoch WSJ headline: Bernanke Bitch-Slaps Poole. :p

Far be it from me to argue with your expert opinion, since I don't trade bonds at all. However, like a whole lot of people I still follow interest rates because they're so important. As an exercise for myself, about a year ago I ran regressions of all the different markets from the early 80's...

Yeah, I'm figuring that with the nice steep yield curve we suddenly have, we have a very nice environment for gold and gold stocks all of a sudden. Huge swing on the gold stock indices today. Sometime soon I'm figuring there's going to be a big rally.

Amazing. Someone over there must have thought to read the financial section in the NY Post between sessions of Soduku, or whatever that game is called...

Really? Well, I must be one of 'em. Sold some Vix calls in the morning at a very tidy profit, bought some puts in the afternoon. Sittin' around waiting to see if tomorrow and the rest of the week is as good as Thursday and Friday was, in the other direction... Obviously, I wasn't the only one...