Search results

It seems like there are very few posters who understand the original concept that the OP posted. There is no magical massaging complex adjustment made to get it to look like "real" charts. Take a simple random binary coin toss and compound the outcome for 365 iterations. Plot the output and...

I just had a power outage/surge blow through all of my surge protectors and take out the supply. Funny thing is the internal supply fuses were not blown and there were no fried parts. Surge protector outlet (piece of garbage) didn't even reset. Just dead as a doornail. I found what they...

I think this is a pretty good idea by OP. I've run this exercise many moons ago, and it is very useful towards ungluing yourself from false beliefs in many so called "objective" TA dogma, and understanding that TA is a reference to be built around, not followed as law. For posters that say...

This is a great lesson I'm going to try to remember on how markets do not follow logic, rather they try to screw the maximum number of short term retail participants on one side of the trade. Remember all the bad news? And how everyone was selling and wouldn't buy? Now today, we get a...

Good pts. But actually the market is worse than random in some respects and better in others (fat tails, mean, and kurtosis/skew). There are also other ways to display the data that show a clear difference in market behavior and random behavior. Read some mandelbrot.

congrats so far to the 6 bold posters that took a stand. The p/c ratio hit an inflection pt. and unlike those who are saying there is no fear, it is normal for the fear to subside when a change in sentiment is beginning to take place. It is rare for put/call to spike and hit an inflection...

I'm waiting for that big ad that says if you bought IBD's#2 pick BIDZ, you would have been up xxxxx%!!!!!!!!! Join now. Think it'll happen?

Looks like the conference call is closed to the public unless you get an account? Shame. It would have been interesting to hear the rebuttal.

consumer confidence is a lagging indicator following markets. Add that to the extreme negative sentiment list. What does that imply for the future?

sdd = significant drawdown... sell down day? ah = after hour

Where's all our opinionated posters? C'mon here's your chance to state your opinion before the fact. It's sitting right on the line, so easy blow through either direction in next few days.

excellent article, thanks for posting Pump. I doubt you'll ever see this type of coverage on IBD. This will be a good example to show whether TA trumps fundamentals. All the IBD tell tale TA signs are a screaming buy.

1st poll here. Feel free to chime in to support your feelings on TA validity.

confidence report is a lagging indicator. Meaningless in futures predictability IMO. Katrina -> confidence sinks market? Soars.

Create your own in html. Not that hard.:) Have Fun.

Better to use the new as a support gauge. Horrific News -> up day = market has support and/or shorts getting shellacked Great News -> Down day = Market has resistance and/or excessive longs getting shellacked good news -> market up bad news -> market dn corroborated support of trend...

You could maybe add a variable called spread? bid/ask 1 = 2 spread 1 = 1000 bid/ask 2 = 2 spread 2 = 2000 Does your answer have to have a result with only one parameter? Another possibility is to take the log of each number, then look at the ratio of logs. 1) log bid/log ask...

I don't think that's something mandelbrot would say. "patterns are the fool's gold of the financial markets... They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless." mandelbrot He would say markets have self-similar fractals, very different than...

S&L debacle, junk bond debacle, currency derivatives trading debacle... CDO debacle... Nothing new under the sun. Keep that in mind whenever you think the end of our economy/stock market is near. Hard lessons learned. Educated opinions are a lot like markets. Always dance with the...

Argh, I just noticed it's an options thread. But your question sounds more like a basic trading probability question. If so, here's some background. Go back to basics. If you flip a coin a thousand times and you get 500 heads, what is the probability of getting heads? P(h) = number of...