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Come on, there's a few banks and pension funds that can/will be forced to buy gilts as well.

Yep, SachsenLB and IKB come to mind as the two most obvious examples.

I am shorting cable here. We're talking about adding £1 - £1.5trn (70% of GDP) added to PSNB.

I want physical for diversification purposes again, because my portfolio is overweight paper at the moment. I tell you seriously what I have been considering. Saw on TV that there's these old subterranean nuclear bunkers that were going pretty cheap in the Midwest at some point. I'm sure...

Well, unless you can claim that you know the intrinsic value of gold, how much it's appreciated is irrelevant. It's all about the expected value of my portfolio in a variety of future scenarios. If you have any other distressed physical assets, pls do let me know.

Strongly agree with this. I am a cash-rich investor (I have been saving and been very conservative with my consumption), but I am a minority. Govts all across the globe will happily screw me through inflation to save the majority, who are overleveraged and in pain. I am buying gold, 'cause it...

Don't know about other people, but the whole point for me is diversification, given the set of probable scenarios. I am buying physical gold here, as I am long other assets, which are primarily paper (this includes cash). I am going to try buying other physical assets, such as land also, if I can.

Agree... As you point out, the Fed, as well as the other CBs are already trying to do these things (see the BoE nascent asset wrap program for RBS/HBOS). My fear is that the political environment is becoming increasingly difficult and I am not too hopeful (although I am told that Barney Frank...

Steinbrueck already said it yesterday. His view matters quite a bit more.

Precisely... But even if you look at the unemployment figures, which are mild, as you suggest, due to methodology, his claim of it being better than the recessions of the 90s or the 80s is preposterous.

That's pretty silly. Has this guy looked at the unemployment rate recently?

What makes you think that Central Bankers are less likely to succumb to groupthink and peer group pressures? Sounds though that PBOC would qualify under most of your criteria.

Although I don't share it, I respect this point of view, ntm... I personally do more macro, not charts or TA. To each their own, as you say. I am firmly short equities here. See no reason to be long something more junior in capital structure for small or even nonexistent yield pickup...

This from HSBC FX strategy: The Gold Swan is the New Black Swan The market has reconsidered the position of the yen as THE safe haven currency given the awful Japanese GDP data (-13%pa). Without the will to purchase the yen, fear money has been squeezed into the dollar, gold and the...

These are, in fact, TIPS, you're right. The point I am making has nothing to do with predicting CPI. That's a job for economists and it's VERY difficult to do, even in the best of times. The goal is to understand how the community today perceives the long-term risk of inflation in the...

The source of this data is the US trsy market, since it is based on a time series of daily closing yields/durations for TIPS and UST (specifically, Jan27 and Jan17 TIPS breakevens). That's why I said that the chart shows inflation expectations implied by the mkt. As to your other point, the...

The chart shows the 10y 10y fwd breakeven inflation, which, arguably, is one of the best measures of inflation expectations (with some caveats, as I mentioned). What I am saying is that the mkt is now repricing the probability of high inflation some time down the road (>10y, but 5y 5y fwd...

The mkt looks to be disagreeing with this view recently (treat the below with all the usual caveats in mind):

I am short EURCAD here, fwiw, for fundamental reasons (I don't do TA).

Doug, I am sorry, but I am out. All you have said above is waffle, yet again. And, honestly, how can you say something as silly as 'it's not all that complicated'. Of course it's extremely complicated and painful and challenging, 'cause otherwise every idiot would make money. I wish you...