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  1. M

    Bonds and ES

    Besides, you're talking about ZB, a long-dated bond future (it's more like 15y, as Nov24 is the CTD), whose movements are not as correlated to the stock mkt as the short-dated futures are. Finally, there were days last year when liquidation would move stocks and bonds the same way, so you have...
  2. M

    German Manufacturing Orders Fall Most Since Reunification as Exports Slump

    While I agree with you on your other points, how is having a 'strong currency' a 'better fundamental' for an export economy?
  3. M

    Pointers about east european crisis?

    The graphs above should be treated with care. What they show is what BIS calls 'total foreign claims' of Western European banks in the CEE countries (that's the often cited $1.5trn figure). However, not all 'foreign claims' are created equal. It's important to distinguish between proper...
  4. M

    need advice to whether to join a hedge fund or a prop shop or to go solo?

    Join a hedge fund, negotiate well (with a professional's help), do not sign anything punitive. I think it's the best option. You have to remember that HF people are not stupid. They, as well as, hopefully, yourself, realize that the thing you have created is not guaranteed to work forever...
  5. M

    $700 trillion phony instruments

    It doesn't work like this... If I have $10k worth of gold and I sell it, does anything actually change in a meaningful way? As pointed out by others, GDP is a measure of value added, not of total value. Unless you are talking about the total value of all the assets in the world, which...
  6. M

    $700 trillion phony instruments

    That's a silly overgeneralization. A future is a derivative instrument. Shall we abolish all futures? And what about this pearl of wisdom: Derivatives pricing, simply put, is determined by what someone else is willing to pay for the contract. No, you don't say?! I wonder if there is an...
  7. M

    Alan Greenspan: "The Fed Didn't Cause the Housing Bubble"

    Alan is being quite a bit disingenuous in his explanation. Firstly, he's cleverly utilizing a logical fallacy that assumes that the bubble can only have one cause, either a low funds rate or low mortgage rates. Because, he argues, low mortgage rates are, ultimately, to blame, it's not the...
  8. M

    Spreads on credit-default swaps for U.S. government debt jumped to 97 basis point

    I don't know where you can see this on the internet for free, but you can see live prices on Bloomberg. You can also check as sometimes Markit publishes something...
  9. M

    Why are the Jews so powerful?

    There's a theory that I heard that attempts to explain competitive advantage within any given setting through several factors (if you're curious look at work done by Thomas Powell). Most importantly, it's 1) population size (self-explanatory), 2) search efficacy (how well the group can locate...
  10. M

    Bear Market is Over! GO long S&P 500!

    ET is truly the place to go for some quality entertainment! I am absolutely lovin' it!
  11. M

    Doom and gloom media in

    You're mad, my friend... Best of luck to you, regardless.
  12. M

    Trader Girl Forex Trades

    Yo, amytrade, while I disagree with some of your methods, your comments suggest to me you're truly stellar at risk management... Just thought I'd say well done and you're a star!
  13. M

    S&P backwardation

    Huh? Is this a serious question?
  14. M

    financials ready to explode

    *BERNANKE SAYS HE WOULDN'T SUPPORT SUSPENDING MARK-TO-MARKET
  15. M

    EU Finance Chiefs Rebuff U.S. Calls to Boost Economic Stimulus

    Actually, Juncker, in spite of being a Prime Minister of the relatively insignificant Luxembourg, is quite an influential ECB figure.
  16. M

    What does a $trn look like

    This is funny: http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
  17. M

    liquidity control

    This is a sort of tangential argument to your point, but this guy REALLY knows what he's talking about and he does describe the transmission mechanism. http://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/feds/2007/200740/200740pap.pdf
  18. M

    NonFarm Payrolls Forecast at -868 000 Jobs

    It's quite obvious, so question is really what you're looking at (see the attached chart of US trade-weighted spot).
  19. M

    Option trading for a newbie

    But, surely, we have to agree that, by definition, if you just play the delta, you must be able to replicate your option portfolio payout with the underlying (otherwise, you wouldn't be able to price options, 'cause Black-Scholes wouldn't hold). The only excessively strong assumption in BS is...
  20. M

    Option trading for a newbie

    Indeed, this is a very valid reason, thx... I don't do stocks, so I did not factor this in.
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