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Yep, as the previous poster mentioned, you should read about bond accrual and the pull to par effect...

Completely agree re global trend growth (if China and the rest of the EM world haven't been able to create large-scale domestic demand during the good years, despite a truly titanic effort, I am skeptical about what they can do now). The original question was about the US, however...

Agree... I think it will be bad, even if we have the expected H2 recovery. I would argue that the big changes have to be made to fundamental assumptions about trend US unemployment and trend US growth for the next decade or two... How about from 3%-ish to 1%-ish for GDP growth and from...

Whatcha need?

That's the problem with competitive devaluation...

HA-HA-HA! I have seen very few things in life as ironic as this... Thx, amico!

How am I contradicting myself? It's the worst number on record since 1949, i.e. ex post. I do not know if it's the worst number that we will be seeing in this downturn, ex ante. My opinion is that the labor mkt hasn't hit the bottom yet, as there's a whole number of leading indicators in the...

Doesn't look like we're at 'there worst' to me...

Huh, sorry I just don't get this... The public has bought into this already, hook, line and sinker. It's the taxpayers' money that will be buying this stuff.

And -741k for Jan is the worst number since 1949, I think.

I agree with you... They're barking up the wrong tree completely, but doing so intentionally. HFs had very little to do with the current crisis. Anyone who cites LTCM should be aware that it happened many years ago. Also, pls let's not bring AIG and Cassano into this. The main reason that...

So why blame the IRS mechanism for this, I wonder? People who bot into the banks' song and dance were either a) complete idiots or b) corrupt. It's a repeat of the same sad story (see Hammersmith and Fulham; Orange County and now we have Jefferson County, AL). Swaps are just instruments and...

These are all notional values and, as such, are largely meaningless.

Yes, pretty sure it will be...

How 'bout this? *FASB VOTES DURING BOARD MEETING TO RELAX FAIR-VALUE ACCOUNTING *FASB GIVES BANKS `SIGNIFICANT' JUDGMENT IN VALUING THEIR ASSETS *FASB VOTE GIVES BANKS MORE FLEXIBILITY IN FAIR-VALUE ACCOUNTING *ACCOUNTING RULEMAKER EASES FAIR-VALUE STANDARD BLAMED IN CRISIS *FASB VOTES TO...

Ooops, looks like I was wrong/too hasty... FASB AGREES TO REMOVE PRESUMPTION IN MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING RULE THAT ALL TRANSACTIONS IN AN INACTIVE MARKET ARE DISTRESSED UNLESS PROVEN OTHERWISE

Reading the FASB Board Meeting Handout that was just posted on the website, looks like there's gonna be NO relaxation of the MTM rule (assuming, that is, that my understanding of 'legalese' and 'actuarese' is OK).

One of the other possible explanations for the correlation is the size of the passive index funds. For example, I could invest in a global equity portfolio that tracks one of the global MSCI indices. A fund manager for such a fund would need to sell USD every time the USD equity mkt performs...

The guy is a sleazeball of the first order, but you have to hand it to him. Not only is he capable of amazing feats of insight, but he can also express his thoughts in a singularly lucid and witty fashion.

'Cause the shadow banking system's balance sheet has now been replaced by the (almost) unlimited balance sheet of the US taxpayer. In general, I'd argue that the whole concept has become completely meaningless. It's a spread between two largely fictional rates that most people in the money...